ronfkingswanson
Long

Looming May 10th China deadline preceded by final short squeeze

BTCE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
1003 19 15
My last chart also anticipated a pre-dump rally, but expected it to max out at the channel boundary around $430. But the constant pushes from Chinese exchanges have resulted in a slow, determined penetration of that channel top, and now has the 4H ichi cloud in its sights. That, combined with the very large asks on BTC-e had me believing we'd easily be dropping from this point into a selloff.However, when I considered the content of the upcoming May 10th self-imposed deadline for closing leveraged positions agreed to by all the major Chinese exchanges in their "joint statement", I saw the makings of an epic short squeeze, rallying all the way to kiss the January bear triangle once more before plummeting (most likely in concert with bad PBOC news). That's when I noticed a much better location for point "B" in my 3-drives pattern, at the major intersection of the rising channel bottom, the January bear triangle, the previous $470 support/resistance line, and the vertical May 10th dateline. The revised ratios of the legs of this pattern are now precisely proportional again, and the new low target is $353 on BTC-e. Thus chart is marked long for this leg up, but then ultimately short for the trip to point "3".Expect.UPDATE 5/9 10AM: downward channel clearly breached over multiple periods, and we've entered the 4H cloud which has suppressed price for so long. China bitcoin summit is starting in 10 hours, and the "joint statement" deadline of no new leverage positions (but existing ones allowed to close later) is pending in 1H. Multiple signals showing this rally is on its way. 
grahvity
2 years ago
Stamp has a turtle head poking through a twist at the moment.
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grahvity grahvity
2 years ago
forgot chart
snapshot
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grahvity grahvity
2 years ago
more accurately put, a thin spot, not a twist.
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jago25_98
2 years ago
similar conclusion with nice fib & time chart in replies:
C wave Ending Diagonal almost complete. Target bottom 320

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that strong 4H cloud has been a major obstacle for a while, but it's thinning, and while the price has been riding the long $428 support line, it's continuing to poke the cloud. The trajectory is slow and deliberate, and looks likely to breach the cloud, if only a bit later than I had originally projected.
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RurickJames ronfkingswanson
2 years ago
RSI seems pretty high...
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ronfkingswanson PRO RurickJames
2 years ago
zoom out from this closeup and you'll see RSI is playing with the recent upper trend, but actually has plenty of headroom for a short rally
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RurickJames ronfkingswanson
2 years ago
agree there is room left, but not sure for how big a move. almost 40pips seems a bit much
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ronfkingswanson PRO RurickJames
2 years ago
given how I'm expecting a big selloff to follow, I don't think it would be an organic TA rally so much as a pre-dump pump
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RurickJames ronfkingswanson
2 years ago
that I buy...but I think it would be a risky buy...im staying in fiat
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ronfkingswanson PRO RurickJames
2 years ago
agree it's not a strong buy. just an opportunity for higher shorts.
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current 1H view shows we're clearly leaving the downward channel since $544, and riding on top of the cloud
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Huobi's current pitchfork channel. Showing possible harmonics to reach a corresponding high target. Huobi has just bounced off the bottom 100% boundary, and the COG channel was squeezed pretty tight there...
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cloud breached with thrust
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MarkZ ronfkingswanson
2 years ago
Do you believe the selloff near point B will be as a result of Bad news from PBOC? I don't see what is left to come from them to affect the price downward. News of another exchange closure this morning led to just a small blip in price
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ronfkingswanson PRO MarkZ
2 years ago
PBOC has expressed "concern" at the speculative rallies in bitcoin thus far. If this rally really does take off, wouldn't be surprised for PBOC to feel inclined to smack it down with more grave news. Not sure what that would be, but they've done it before...
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pumapunko PRO ronfkingswanson
2 years ago
What further news they could possibly come out with? Everyone knows now that all Chinese exchanges are no longer accepting deposits and it has barely affected BTC!
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The fibs from the selloff on April 27th have been framing the price action perfectly ever since. We've walked down and up and back down and now back up, climbing rungs like a ladder. Figured I'd see where this ladder goes, and when I scrolled up to see the 1.618 extension, it conveniently lands right at my high $470 target
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jago25_98 ronfkingswanson
2 years ago
Seem to have breached that. Seemed possible to below $500 to be some manipulation prior to China news but frankly now I'm having my doubts. That spike is way too quick though - a good opportunity to short
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