My last chart also anticipated a pre-dump rally, but expected it to max out at the channel boundary around $430. But the constant pushes from Chinese exchanges have resulted in a slow, determined penetration of that channel top, and now has the 4H ichi cloud in its sights. That, combined with the very large asks on BTC-e had me believing we'd easily be dropping from this point into a selloff.However, when I considered the content of the upcoming May 10th self-imposed deadline for closing leveraged positions agreed to by all the major Chinese exchanges in their "joint statement", I saw the makings of an epic short squeeze, rallying all the way to kiss the January bear triangle once more before plummeting (most likely in concert with bad PBOC news). That's when I noticed a much better location for point "B" in my 3-drives
pattern, at the major intersection of the rising channel
bottom, the January bear triangle, the previous $470 support/resistance
line, and the vertical May 10th dateline. The revised ratios of the legs of this pattern are now precisely proportional again, and the new low target is $353 on BTC-e. Thus chart is marked long for this leg up, but then ultimately short for the trip to point "3".Expect.UPDATE 5/9 10AM: downward channel
clearly breached over multiple periods, and we've entered the 4H cloud which has suppressed price for so long. China bitcoin
summit is starting in 10 hours, and the "joint statement" deadline of no new leverage positions (but existing ones allowed to close later) is pending in 1H. Multiple signals showing this rally is on its way.