2H TF ; the leg up did not happen within the estimated timeframe = bearish sign. It did happen AFTER the drop AFTER the estimated TF. This only confirms there is a bearish sentiment/"trend change"
4h TF ; it made a bearish divergence. It fell down in the estimated TF AND made a quick last leg up, which didnt last long at all.
1H TF; Here we saw clearly the critical momentum warning change. (red dots)
Here we could conclude the last leg up very risky to trade. Only more indication on a bearish sentiment.
Here we can confirm on weekly we almost got a confirmed buy signal. Blue LSMA, red dots and the red line need ATLEAST 1 weekly (green) candle more to cross up.
On the 1h/2h/4h and daily TF we can basically confirm there will more more range trading. The retrace SHOULD not be too violent, but definiately can cause PANIC of traders (long squeeze).
However, i expect the dip will be bought up quite fast.
Personally, if we still above and hold 5.3k, the correction is very normal and uptrend is basically still intact since we mostly retrace back to the break out point.
If cross below and close daily under it, the momentum definitely changed to a very bearish sentiment and opens it doors for 1.3k-2.5k-3k
Possible start of retrace to support based on Gann should be +/- 12th of July
here is the update of the same chart:
I expect to range trade until 28th july ATLEAST and (temporary?) reversal NEEDS to happen before 8th August.
This is based on the weekly TA ( the one with the blue arrows posted earlier).
If we close this month BELOW 5.7-5.8k, we should be prepared for a HUGE discounts.
Here is the longterm view i have made last year october:
Expected the bounce at 0.386 fib, but it did not hold. However, we (almost) touched the 0.236 fib level. ( depends on what exchange you are looking at)
IF this level holds and we do bounce over the starchart gann ( the chart with blue arrow posted earlier) resistance AND cross the cloud resistance + close above it weekly/monthly, the longterm view is still intact.
wyckoff --> *note*
I am not an expert in Wyckoff, so there is a chance some parts i marked there, are wrong..
godmode green ghost = showing early exhaustion earlier.
green line started to curve down near 80% —> exhaustion
red line losing momentum now too. —> for red and green to intersect = 1 x 2h candle needed
Blue LSMA is still heading up. If green and red do intersect, blue LSMA will start to slow down/ lose upward momentum.
HOWEVER, there are no red dots appearing on HIGHER TFS (2h-1W) in the exhaustion bull zone on the indicators (80%+).
According to this indicator, this downward move is very "normal". ( Normal because on weekly the indicators says it should go up after this range trading area)
Based on the fractal of the last small range trading area, we got approx 10h more to make a drop since the indicators still got room to go down more.
2H TF gives up +/- 3 candles
3H TF = 3 candles
4H TF = 3/4 candles
—-> indicator gives us a range of 6-12H more. Fractal 10H
Do pay attention on MONTHLY candles. Monthly MIGHT close as a Doji.
Weekly indicators still give us +/- 4 green candle once it start to bounce.
* As long we are above the support line and does not close DAILY below it, it is still more "bullish" than bearish*
Bitcoin broke the downward channel since 20k + it tested /still testing the resistance on Gann starchart.
Next days are crucial. We still can go higher based on Daily and Weekly indicators are looking GREAT.
However, on lower timeframes ( 1h up to 1D) are it is showing exhaustion.
Daily is showing some early exhaustion but still got plenty of room to go up.
update on this short term break out.
We still need more confirmation if correction is over or not.
- Market sentiment is TOO euphoric. ( previous charts with zones explanation --> we are in euphoric zone of last range trading area). I have made a new zone area in the chart above.
- We broke out of the downward channel we are in since 20k. but its too early to say bear is over. We need to HOLD above it and succesfully retest it prior we can say its over.
- 2014 fractal (log scale) shows we never broke the downtrend until trend changed
( misclicked previous post -.-) dont mind the circles and text. Please only pay attention on the channel.
- we still need to watch out for sma 200 and 300 to cross , which is very very close to cross eachother. IF they do cross, it is very very bearish and it is possible that this will push the market downward.
BUT dont forget!! AS LONG SUPPORT HOLDS, WE STILL CAN GO UP = PLAN A.
PLAN B IS IF SUPPORT DOES NOT HOLD, BE PREPARED FOR BEAR MARKET
Retrace started at July 25th —> beginning of wave 4, as expected before. Wave 4 should end MAX 7.3k +/-
Reason for this it is a the support of the resistance zone.
Before reaching there, i expect to bounce up at 7.8k, the level we broke out from to have an extended wave iii.
In this chart, u will see the micro counts. subwave B of wave IV should reach +/- 8241 ( green line)
I have marked end of wave IV at 7.3k, however, it should end between 7585 (38.2 retrace) and 7295 usd (50% retrace). Below we will see some (local) panic.
The LOW of wave 4 is NOT confirmed yet. Reason? subwave B of wave IV can be extended. The low of wave IV only can be confirmed IF subwave B is ending at 8.2k.
- subwave A should end within 12 hours +/- —> bounce up on 28th/29th July for subwave B
- Subwave B should top at around August 3rd
- Subwave C thus wave IV should end 8th-10th August MAX. If not, the bearish sentiment is getting traction.
- weekly got A LOT more room to go up. Indicators are mostly bottomed out, Heikin Ashi candles shows us strong reversal and its still intact. Question is: How long more? I have mentioned before, we will see atleast 4 weekly green candles. Well, we are at 2 at this moment and still got a lot of room to go up.
We might even see 9.2-9.5k before a bearish reversal ( based on monthly)
- Monthly Indicators are breathing and candles are looking better ( bulish harami) . What worries about the monthly TF is the volume. Using Heikin Ashi candles, we are still seeing a strong downtrend.
Wave 5 most likely happened.
Most likely we are in wave B now and as noted before:
Wave b of wave IV might be an extended B. --> double top or extended B expected!
Wave IV retrace looks alot like wxyxz correction rather than ABC correction.
local trading range and the meaning of each zones (purple) :
daily swing trading range in blue:
As you know, my view in this is, we are just in wave 4.
If we cross below 7.2k we will enter in a local panic zone once again ( purple trading range) and we will enter the "dumb zone" with a local support @6742 usd —> middle of the trading range (black striped line) .
IF we reach 6.742k, it NEEDS to bounce hard with huge volume back to 7k+ and close 4h above it to look forward to wave V.
Probability = 40% for bullish bounce if we reach 6.7k imo.
IF we hold +/- 7250 usd = bottom support of purple range trading area and bottom resistance zone of blue range trading area, we are very likely to see higher prices at +/- 8.9-9.3k.
This elliot wave sequence is invalid IF daily closes below 6742 usd. Wave IV will overlap wave I and we then just did ABC corrective wave up for a new set of impulsive 1-2-3-4-5 elliot wave down most likely.
End wave 4 most likely August 3rd to 5th !
* be cautious of the weekly ichimoku cloud denial = bear *
4h TF for a close up of wave IV
As you see in this TF, Stocchrsi gave us buy signals already and everything has bottomed in GM 3.1 earlier and will start to cross eachother once again in bearish exhaustion zone ( buy zone).
For these indicators to cross eachother in GM 1.3, we need +/- 2-3 (slightly bearish or bearish/indecisive) candles.
So the next 8-12hour probably are important!
The downfall was fast and harsh, did not see this impulsive down movement coming..
The wavecount is now invalid since wave iv overlapped wave i.
Imo, we are having a failed rally and we will sideways +/- 2 weeks until August 19th.
From there on, we will see a clearer picture where we are heading to.
this CAN be the wavecount. If daily does close in the support zone and the wicks getting shorter —> WATCH OUT!
We tested the 5.8-6k zone 3 times now succesfully, 4th and 5th times mostly turns out stingy!!