BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
1251 12 18
Dear John,

I peruse the community, browsing charts and the crypto section just makes me sigh a lot of time. That's ok, because there's something I can do about it. Many crypto traders are stuck and confused with the current action in BTCUSD             . That's ok too. Normally, I just post charts with levels and targets. Today I'm gonna break some things down


Let's Break It Down:

Before making any trades, analyze the higher time frame trends. Say you start with the weekly. What is the weekly trend? Currently the longer term trend in BTC             is up, but only because the low at 5500ish has held. Crazy to think that the current trend is still upward. Using a log scale will help you see that more clearly.




Since I've identified the major trend, I move to more current price action, the more immediate trend.



Notice the weekly levels being held within the segment of trend in the dashed yellow line? These levels labeled around 8350 and 9300s will be important to either fail or gain.

It just so happens that the price action contained inside the yellow box in the chart below, is the result of the downward momentum produce from the move down from 20K. The yellow box is really just an attempt to exhaust the downward momentum.


Now that the momentum exchange is clear, what now? Well let's analyze something bigger to check the perspective.

The monthly chart doesn't look as crazy in log scale, but it has some valuable information to tell us. I'm overlaying previous crashes in BTCUSD             with the current setup



On the monthly chart, I have some reservations about not testing the 4900 area or at least the lows at 5500 before making new all time highs. Interestingly enough:


Now back to more current action. The downtrend should continue unless the 9100 area is gained. How soon will that happen? Probably not anytime soon (but I've been wrong before).


All markets behave with certain rules in mind. The random-walk hypothesis is either purposeful misinformation, or pretty math tweaked to fit a narrative. The mind of markets is actually more relatable to Newtonian physics than anything else, but I digress...


To get really excited, I want to see $BTCUSD gain some really significant higher time frames of support, otherwise... the downtrend continues (probably something relating to the fractal chart I posted above). I'm unbiased either way... "hope don't get the job done."

John... what I'm trying to say is... I'm leaving you.

Previously yours truly,
Dope

I always love to see what you have to say Dope, Many thanks dude.
+2 Reply
This is 2018, not 2014, didnt have big hack like Mt.Gox. Disagreed!
+1 Reply
@meomeo888, Another newschaser I see..
+1 Reply
TheHooperShow _Dope_Trades
@meomeo888 come back to this chart in the future
+1 Reply
_Dope_Trades TheHooperShow
@TheHooperShow, well, I could be wrong. @meomeo888 could be right...anything is possible.
Reply
TheHooperShow _Dope_Trades
@_Dope_Trades, yeah but you gave scenarios to both sides, kind of hard to be wrong :D youre about the only trader i trust when it comes to calls
+1 Reply
_Dope_Trades TheHooperShow
@TheHooperShow, I think if you really understand charting, you should usually have an idea as to why your ideas was wrong, recognize it as wrong, and then know exactly where the opposite side of the play is.
Reply
TheHooperShow _Dope_Trades
@_Dope_Trades, always have that plan b pill ready lol
Reply
meomeo888 TheHooperShow
@TheHooperShow, In 2013-2014, many many people dont know about BTC, cryptocurrencies,... 2018, BTC everywhere, everyday. Many exchanger larger than Mt.Gox, Larger marketcap,..etc... What make you think This market is the same like 2014?

I can give you 2 scenarios 100% possible happen here:
Reply
@meomeo888, For some reason you have clung to the idea that price action of 2014 will be similar to 2018. Why? There's much more going on in the analysis than a possible fractal nature...lol. My analysis has more more reasoning included.
Reply
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