This is an extra update, separate from my main Bitcoin analysis. Just trying to judge the strength of the bulls of the past days. This channel here seems to be real and it's always a matter of time until it breaks down, but we obviously can't know when :). Since my assumption is that it's time to see a correction, i think it's getting close. Bears did an attack just now, but bulls have pushed back just as fast once again. Something we have seen several times past 2 weeks. Started to look as if the 8700ish would break, but it has held so far.
I do think, that if we see a fast push up coming hours, it could become a trap move. So if we see a break upwards and a fast move back inside of the channel, it will become very likely to see it break the support line as well and see an even bigger drop.
Current Bitcoin analysis:
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No bounce, also not a break. A break down is more likely at this point. Think 8800/820 is the max for bears being in favor short term'
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The red resistance around 8920 worked, broke down but no dump. Went up quite a bit since, making a possible double top. If 8650/80 breaks and eventualluy 8600ish as well, we could be headed to 8300 even. This double top turning into a bullish triangle is also still a realistic option at this point, but 8650 has to hold
I agree with your analysis. A major correction is already baked into the mix. Likely around 9100. This is reminiscent of October 25 when it shot up 3k in 3 days. This time it is going up a little slower but eventually the rocket will run out of fuel and crash.
PsychonauticalTrader
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@BDG, of course things can't go up forever without retracing. But this move has been 35% over a period of about 30 days.
The October 25th move was 39% over 72 hours.
The October 2th move was destined to collapse completely. This one is far more likely to represent a trend change, methinks.
BDG
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@PsychonauticalTrader, yes it is hinting at a trend change, but is not official as far as I'm concerned unless price moves above 200 MA and stays above it. It is close, but no cigar. All we have so far is a rally. I expect a pull back to around 8.3k either way. It can also drop to 5.5k, and I haven't ruled that out yet. I will have to wait for the pullback to see if it has enough strength to break 200 MA on the next rally. Don't forget we have been in a 2 year bear market. A 1 week rally, or as you suggested, a 30 day rally is not enough (so far) to convince me we are in a bull trend. It could be a dead cat bounce. I will have to wait and see.
Turningmecard
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agree 1000%. price will find support at 8500 area, weekly cloud support, i think until next monday, sunday.
HouseTarly
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@Turningmecard, Yeah, this is where I'm looking at adding GBTC.
A5gamakatsu
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Nice chart.
Wonder what will be stronger stronger, top of this pennant or support from green parabola? Next few months are critical.