HecknDoggo
Long

Human Behavior and Crypto

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Dear traders and investors,

I was just reflecting a bit on this long term log chart for BTC ; I often see this chart being passed around here and it has even made its way on to mainstream financial news outlets. Most people in the world of finance realize the power of ideas and expectations, especially potentially profitable ones. My question to this community is this: how does the expectation of the next bull run actually affect its probability when that expectation is disseminated more broadly? In other words, since more people are trading/investing based on this scenario, does that mean the outcome may be different this time around? Historical price action is never a guarantee of future performance.

Now I do realize that Bitcoin has some fundamental drivers here including reduced/capped supply coupled with steadily increasing demand. But whenever this chart is presented, it almost seems like a "sure thing" that insane profits will be made in the next 2-3 years. Based on this implication, we're already seeing institutions jump into the Bitcoin and other major crypto spaces. Yet, if everyone "knows" that BTC will rise up to around $70-90k after halving in May 2020, I wonder how likely it is that demand will keep up as we get closer to that price range since this would be an increasingly foolish point to buy into bitcoin ...unless you're planning on holding for another 5 years. Will that potential drop in demand then imply that we wouldn't reach such soaring heights in the next bull run? Maybe it will be more gradual this time around...I'd like to hear more from this community!

Thanks for reading!

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