karlkrawall
Long

BTC - narrowing triangle to take us to final target

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
We are currently replicating the pattern from 6K low to 7.2K low. There may be a false breakout at the end of the triangle, but I believe the finale target may be at the bottom line of the triangle.

Other possibilities I could imagine:
a direct drop out of the triangle
an upwards break out of the triangle at it's end if BTC makes a run now or after another minor drop .

We'll see! This is just me playing around, definitely no financial advice!
Mar 27
Comment:
Mar 27
Comment: BTC just took a drop down, respecting the pattern nicely. I expect it to bounce off around $7965. No financial advice

Mar 27
Comment: There is a symetrical triangle now inside the falling wedge. That is interesting, as the symetrical triangle is not a continuation pattern. It it a 50/50 pattern, so we might see a first indicator soon whether we are dropping to around 7650 now or if BTC may start a ralley to 8400 or even higher to touch the resistance line of the large triangle.

Mar 27
Comment: I mis-typed the number above, not 7965 but 7665.
Mar 27
Comment: So the drop to the downside happened and bounced exactly at the red support line. I expect it to accumulate there briefly and then drop to the target.

From there I expect BTC to bounce and do one more bull run. But it is approaching the end of the triangle, and I feel like the bounce will not have enough steam to touch the triangle resistance line. My guess would be around $8400. From there I guess we start the last big downtrend to 4.5-5K.

Mar 29
Comment: The small symmetrical triangle pictured above morphed into a larger one. There was a fake breakout to the top, a typical behavior for a symmetrical triangle, before dropping out of it downwards. The small move upwards before this drop that I anticipated didn't happen and the alternative scenario described at the beginning happened, BTC dropped out of the triangle directly. The target of this drop should be $7200 for now.

BUT, interestingly, this could also be just a fake breakout of the large, blue symmetrical triangle. I lean towards bearish though and my final target remains around 5K.

Mar 31
Comment: And another symmetrical triangle. 50/50, but I believe it's more likely this will break out to the downside since we're so close to test 6K again, and the breakdown from the large blue triangle suggests a final target below 5K.

Apr 01
Comment: morphed into bear flag, so the direction should be down. Target of the bear flag is the much anticipated 6K support.

Apr 05
Comment: Final large bear flag is (well, should be) forming. It's target happens to be the same as the large blue triangle's target, $5000.

This could still play out very different, so this is no financial advice. There may be a bounce at 5.8 - 6K area, but I personally believe BTC will drop further.

Apr 10
Comment: nothing changed, still the same target from the very beginning. I saw some 'Top' traders having the same target just now (and bragging about that they showed it first, yeah right). Maybe that makes my analysis more likely...maybe not ;)

Apr 12
Comment: BTC gets rejected at the channel resistance, blue line, forming a triangle. Next targets of that triangle should be $6400, then $6000.

Apr 12
Comment: Still same target as more than 2 weeks ago.

Apr 12
Comment: Well...I have to surrender to moves like this...not natural
Apr 12
Comment: Someone decided to push BTC back to the support line of the large blue triangle, which functioned at resistance now. All within a couple minutes. Crazy

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