If you haven't heard of this one before, it is because this signal is so rare. I will focus this study primarily on this (Ichimoku signal) and to a lesser extent the MA Crosses on the 1D chart.
** Ichimoku Cloud turning bullish ** As you see on the chart the roll-over/ switch on the Ichimoku Cloud since the December 2017 All Time High (ATH) has only happened three times. Three times in the span of more than two years. And this week we just had the fourth occurrence.
Let's break this signal down a little more: The first incident was in March 2018. The Ichimoku has then turned bearish for the first time since November 2016. This basically was the official start of the 2018 Bear Cycle, the indication that the ATH would not be recovered before a lengthy and stronger decline.
The next roll-over was a Bullish one and took place in April 2019, which practically validated the extension of the rally that month and also the fact that the bottom of the previous Bear Cycle was in. The third occurrence was last October (2019) confirming the correction of the previous 3 month rally.
Now we've just had the fourth turn; second bullish of the time frame we are looking at.
** The role of Golden/ Death Crosses (MA50 and 200) ** I am sure most of you are familiar with the Golden/ Death Cross formation, the strongest of which occur when the MA50 crosses above the MA200 (Golden Cross) and vice versa (Death Cross). As you can see on the chart, after every bearish Ichimoku roll-over, a Death Cross follows shortly after. Respectively after every bullish Ichimoku roll-over, a Golden Cross follows. Since the new Ichimoku Bullish roll-over just took place, a new Golden Cross in pending (see on the chart how the MA50 and MA200 have already started to converge).
** The MA1000/1400 Buy Zone ** In addition to the above I bring forward the long term Buy Zone consisting of the MA1000 and MA1400 on the 1D chart, which I have used numerous times before. Since the last Ichimoku Bullish turn validated the bounce on the MA1400 (green line) as the bottom of the 2018 Bear Cycle, then we can rather safely assume that the December 2019 bounce on the MA1000 (yellow line) is the bottom of the June correction. And quite possibly use the MA1000 as a buy entry on future pull backs.
At this point I want to give you examples of how accurate the Ichimoku indicator has been in the past for me.
See how well it predicted the $6500 bottom back in October 2019 when BTC was still trading at $8000:
And also the rise to +$11000 as I called the bottom of the Bear Cycle on the following chart back in February 2019 (!) when BTC was still trading at $3500 (!):
I can't really stress enough how rare thus important this Ichimoku Bullish Signal is. But what do you think? Is this Ichimoku indicator important to your strategy and will the upcoming Golden Cross strengthen the bull case? Let me know in the comments section!
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I like the analysis and you might be right, who knows. But looking at it from a different angle (by way of Bitcoin/Gold ratio), I can't get rid of the thought that it looks suspiciously similar to the end of July 2018. We know what happened then.
bassguitar
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@ReallyMe, People really need to stop posting their charts on top of other people's! If we wanted to see your stupid chart we would have found it ourselves. Enough of this attention-seeking behavior!
ReallyMe
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@bassguitar, it is interesting how some weird freaks presume to turn around the forum idea of exchanging views and imagine in their sick minds speak on behalf of everyone. "we" would like to shut everyone down who share their charts!
TradingShot
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@ReallyMe, Keep sharing your charts ReallyMe. It is the cornerstone of the tradingview platform.
ReallyMe
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@TradingShot, Thanks for your good ideas and postings, I certainly will.
@bassguitar, sharing charts is the point of this site. why make it ok to post charts in comments if the TradingView creators didn't think it was a good idea? you're really going against the grain here..