The current momentum in the market is no doubt exciting. We’ve got institutional investors, Paypal, Micro strategy, you name all telling us ‘this is it’. I’m reminded of that ‘Michael Novogratz’ moment back in 2017 when he called 40k Bitcoin before his business lost $272.7 million. Point is, don’t listen. The moment you put them above you in the belief they are smarter is the same moment I believe losses are greatest.
I’ve published the above chart in other ideas but I believe there’s merit on having this on its own.
The facts:
1) A supporting trend line almost active for the entire life of Bitcoin’s history was broken in March.
2) Thus far we’ve tested this trend line twice creating a bearish rising wedge pattern.
3) The wedge was broken in August / September. And now we climb to test resistance. Resistance is @ 14K (the all time monthly high).
One of two things will happen:
1) Bulls push up and through 14K and test as support. To the moon.
2) 14K becomes resistance and price action goes down. A lot.
There is no trade here in my opinion. Risk / reward is unacceptable. Wait for confirmation!
Trade active
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That was an impressive rejection from almost 14k. A Gravestone DOJI is forming on the weekly chart at this moment. What should you be watching this week if you're long on BTC? A close below 13k. A close here would transition the 'Big IF' to the "Almost certain".
Time will tell.
Trade active
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As above - one of two things will happen - (1) is winning! Well done bulls.
Now we must wait for confirmation. Price action has pushed through resistance and must confirm it as support.
Trade active
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A move to 12K looks imminent. 2-day Stochastic RSI just crossed down 80. This would be a 20% move to the downside to first support.
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Fear & Greed index @ 90 'Extreme Greed' - time to be fearful.
@without_worries, Thank you. It will be interesting to see how BTC performs during a fall in stocks.
without_worries
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@vishweshwaran26, Watch the 21-week EMA. If support fails BTC begins a journey to low low levels seen last in March. The 21-week EMA is everything.
vishweshwaran26
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@without_worries, I am sorry. I don't exactly know how to spot 21 week EMA. :D Please tell me the 21 week EMA support PRICE. :) Pardon my poor chart reading ability. :D
without_worries
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@vishweshwaran26, The yellow line below is the 21-week EMA on the weekly chart. Look left where I've circled in black, you can see price action bounced off the 21-week in the previous bull market. Bitcoin is known to test this level in a bull market so everyone is watching it. I suspect the weeks ahead will be quite boring for Bitcoin and very exciting for alt-coins.
Price? I don't know. If it dropped today in a straight line, 12k. If price action goes sideways for weeks until price meets the 21-EMA it could be 14k. Very boring and a longer wait than most would like.
vishweshwaran26
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@without_worries, Wow. Looks great. Thank you for the information. I am eagerly waiting for a situation when BTC drops, Altcoins don't drop and the behaviour of BTC and Altcoins become inverse and independent of each other. I will wait until it happens. :D Is there an indicator to describe what I have just said? :D (Other than BTC or Alt Dominance)