Well this scenario looks familiar doesn’t it... but theres one small detail missing... THE BULL TRAP!
and or the EPIC SHORT SQUEEZE!
Things to keep in mind.
Shorts are at ATH, Positive news in the BTC ecosystem, Lightning, mempool, tx fees, ETF back on the table.
Price is suppressed to the max right now. Everyone expecting 6k double bottom, 5k bottom, 3k bottom, etc
Nobody.. NOBODY is expecting a bounce from here- which is why it’s the perfect storm for a short squeeze/bull trap 1-2 punch.
Long from 6700 – Target is 8300-8700
Take a look at the left chart, we hit ATH – drop to the .786 retrace and immediately bounce off of it – same for the chart on the right.
Then we x2 top, and tap the downtrend line from ATH
Then back to the .786 retrace, small pop, retest .786..but then BOOM – straight shot to the 200MA/Trend Line..
This is what im waiting for, and you should be too!
It should be noted we get utterly SHREKT after this happens lol – my target after this insane bull trap would be low 4000’s – will be an epic short.
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Looking at the ETH action lately, it seems alts are pricing in an uptrend. If BTC follows ETH could look something like below:
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Bitcoins been in a $530 range for more than 2 days - this is pretty uncommon. The alts are pumping a bit, and the funding rate on BitMex has been insane. Ive held my long for a 25% gain in funding alone - point is i think the whales are pumping alts, collecting funding and going to use the gains to push BTC soon
Look at the ridiculous amount of divergence between short and long while weve only moved $530 lol
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Let the games begin
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The 4H candle after the pump began at the 200EMA - failed it immediately, and broke a major .618 fib ( from the entire parabolic cycle of 200's to 20,000 )
Expecting a lot of sideways here with a couple fakeouts and stop runs. Ultimately we will retrace to low 7's while refueling on shorts before making a run at the log scale downtrend line - may look something like this:
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The daily is telling me we may be topped out ( for now )
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Too early for confirmation ofc but tweezer tops in play from initial candle
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So as we would expect, a ton of shorts have closed
But no much increase in longs yet - shorts and longs are currently ~ 50/50
I would have thought we would have had a retrace by now, its taking much longer than expected but i still believe its coming
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She has chosen!
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Bitcoin is honeybadgering my pullback call and trekking right on up to the 8750 target. Couple points of interest:
Sentiment is highly bullish across the board ( YT, Twitter, TV ) Longs are back at ~ 32k BUT Volume is fading Stoch RSI is sky high - and beginning to roll over ( last time it was this high was 11600, and 9200, remember them? lol ) Were printing a near perfect TD 9 pattern if we continue, which would seem to end perfectly at the 8750 target The obvious log downtrend line, 55EMA, and 200EMA on the daily are right above us - combined with the .786 retrace @ 8578..
Im not saying it cant be done - but this is a TALL order for the bulls
Trade closed manually
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It would seem the top was around 8450 - still a great trade, check out the update!
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The above idea was removed by TV, here is the new one:
Yesterday the enthusiasts were calling for a crash. Now they're howling for the moon. I'm sticking with your call, because it makes far more sense. Thanks for the level head and the advice. Some of us need it.
BeetCorn
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@doverhimself, Sentiment changes so quickly - pack mentality. Whales are capitalizing on it, im just surfin in their wake lol
RexItUp
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@BeetCorn, It's the only way to be. Gotta acknowledge they're in control at all times and everyone else just needs to look for clues and follow along.
rsansbury
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Really great work, @BeetCorn, I follow only a very few, but now you're at the top of my list. Thanks for your work.
Wow, I cnt believe it, u called it pretty amazingly, I have no choice but to follow you now man XD
Btw, how did you make 25% in funding?
I looked at the link you posted (showing the funding history on Bitmex) and they were mostly negative...doesnt that mean u as a long gotta pay to the shorts?