Ironman8848

BTCUSD - W1 - SHOOTING STAR - WARNING !

GEMINI:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Today we are going to look at different times frame from the medium to the short term (W1 - D1 - H4 - H1)

W1 :

Last weekly price action, triggered on a closing basis a "shooting star" which means a warning signal for a potential trend reversal
Indeed, such kind of pattern should be considered as a negative point as this type of candlestick is formed when
a "security" opened, advanced significantly, but then closed the period near the open level again.
As mentioned, in my previous analysis (see related idea below), 2 scenarios could be seen and this week price
action will tell us which one will take place...
For the time being, low seen has been 59'505

D1 :

The support trend line of the ongoing uptrend channel has been tested with an intraday low reached yesterday @ 59'505
Currently still above MBB @ 59'221 but below TS @ 62'965
On this D1 time frame I would suggest to look at 2 important levels, which are the following :
UPSIDE : 63'000
DOWNSIDE : 59'000

A breakout of one of those 2 levels should trigger +/- a 3'000 points move, targeting respectively 66'000 (former highest D1 closing level on the upside and 56'000 on the downside (38.2% Fib ret)

H4 :
Clouds bottom, for the time being worked perfectly well as a support...
Nevertheless, the ongoing recovery has nearly reached the 38.2% Fib ret (@ 62'365) of the last downside correction (66'994-59'505) , high seen so far 62'223
Looks like a lack of momentum !
Watch ongoing price action over the next coming hours.

H1 :

Clouds resistance broken... BUT !!!
As mentioned on H4 analysis, the 38.2% Fib ret @ 62'365 has nearly been filled and do not forget, we are in a corrective price action move in a new bearish trend ; therefore, you should watch carefully
also at the price action seen over the coming hour (s) to detect early signal of a reversal.
Watch the clouds which after having been a resistance area , becomes now as the new support zone (61'750-61'000)
Interesting to note that the bottom of the clouds, roughly coincides with the cluster of MBB and TS !!!

CONCLUSION :(ON SHORT TERM, INTRADAY BASIS)
A FAILURE TO HOLD ON H1 ABOVE TS , CURRENTLY @ 61'400 SHOULD BE SEEN AS THE FIRST WARNING SIGNAL FOR FURTHER DOWNSIDE WHICH WOULD BE CONFIRMED BY A FAILURE TO HOLD AND STAY SUSTAINABLY ABOVE
THE BOTTOM OF THE CLOUDS & CLUSTER (61'000-60'800)


Have a nice week and all the best

Ironman8848

Technical analyst Expert since 1991. Member of the Swiss Association of Market Technicians (SAMT).
https://ironman8848.com/private-analysis/