akublashvili
Short

BTC is going down baby! The Shit is about to hit the fan.

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Heya All,
More and more I look at the price action I feel that these FIB circles of death and capitulation guys might be up to something. They might have been right all along... however, until proven otherwise on regular bases I don't really believe all these crab circles, fractals. BTC LTC and BTC GOLD leading indication BS. This being said, support and resistance remain to be my god and MAs are my apostils. Halliluiah! Praise the mighty 50 and 200 EMAs on 4 hours! Can I get Aaamen?!
Moving on....
Here are interesting observations and high probability scenario moving forward:
1. A death cross is upon us and most likely it will come with a size of destruction which can be measured reasonably well. Usual death cross brings about 15-25% drop from our nearest top,
which means that:
- Scenario A: about 15% drop from the nearest top will bring us to the edge of the first blue resistance box, -Likelihood 85%
- Scenario B: about 20% drop from the nearest top will bring us to the edge of the second blue resistance box, - Likelihood 65%
- Scenario C: about 25% drop from the nearest top will bring us to the edge of the third blue resistance box, - Likelihood 35%
So this provides a nice trade setup.
Timewise----- I think that short setup might take up to 4 days to fully realize. if we breach the first box and we manage to open and close under it on 4 h it will hint near term continuation to the next box, if we open and close under it then the target becomes the third box in the line. Open and close on 4H under the third box will likely be a first leading indication to a possible general trend reversal, this will be a major change of BTC's behaviour (there is more to that but, I prefer not to speculate until a precedent).
2. We are under major moving averages on 4H , next big support which most likely will not give much of the resistance is brown 377 EMA . Daily 100 EMA is standing at 9777 and Daily 200 EMA is at 8100 (this level is irrelevant for now). Weekly 21 is at 8850 levels so this might present a potential bounce area in between the second and the third resistance boxes.
3. Declining volume profile for the last week indicates that the price is ready for a massive move and it will take incremental trades to generate large leaps.
4. There is a good possibility that we draw a massive wick to 10800 levels from here and avert the whole situation but at this point, I think that chances of this taking place are slim.

Stay safe people and have a profitable week-end.
Cheers
Archie
Trade active: This is the most underwhelming deathcross in BTC trading history..... Still waiting for the move.
Trade active: Despite a massive 400$ move to the upside we still have not resolved the bear flag structure on 4H. 5 minute looks like Bart Simpson is about to happen. And we got rejected on daily both by 21EMA and 10 Simple.
On a positive note, we have moved price action above 200 EMA and SMA on 4 Hour and death cross is quickly reverting back.
In summary, here is my take: If we move in between 10.9- 11.2 I will consider a week-long sideways action before anything else. 11.2-11.8 range will bring higher targets. We still need to resolve the bull flag/triangle formation on a larger structure. Let's see...
Trade active: Yea.... BTC had some droopy action today. Finally we have come to test the first blue box territory and we got rejected. I think there is more blood in this water. Let's see if we pull up or slice through...
Thanks for your analysis. I also think it is going downtrend.
+1 Reply
akublashvili kenshintani
@kenshintani, Thanks man! my pleasure. We have an ugly red doji printing on 4 hour and this should serve as an additional confirmation. If this doji was at around 10520 level, it would have been interpreted as a shooting star. Anyways, who cares about candlestick patterns when we have much more major macro factors aligning up. Thanks again!
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