More and more I look at the price action I feel that these FIB circles of death and capitulation guys might be up to something. They might have been right all along... however, until proven otherwise on regular bases I don't really believe all these circles, fractals. BTC LTC and BTC GOLD leading indication BS. This being said, remain to be my god and MAs are my apostils. Halliluiah! Praise the mighty 50 and 200 EMAs on 4 hours! Can I get Aaamen?!
Here are interesting observations and high probability scenario moving forward:
1. A death cross is upon us and most likely it will come with a size of destruction which can be measured reasonably well. Usual death cross brings about 15-25% drop from our nearest top,
which means that:
- Scenario A: about 15% drop from the nearest top will bring us to the edge of the first blue resistance box, -Likelihood 85%
- Scenario B: about 20% drop from the nearest top will bring us to the edge of the second blue resistance box, - Likelihood 65%
- Scenario C: about 25% drop from the nearest top will bring us to the edge of the third blue resistance box, - Likelihood 35%
So this provides a nice trade setup.
Timewise----- I think that short setup might take up to 4 days to fully realize. if we breach the first box and we manage to open and close under it on 4 h it will hint near term continuation to the next box, if we open and close under it then the target becomes the third box in the line. Open and close on 4H under the third box will likely be a first leading indication to a possible general trend reversal, this will be a major change of BTC's behaviour (there is more to that but, I prefer not to speculate until a precedent).
2. We are under major moving averages on 4H , next big support which most likely will not give much of the resistance is brown 377 . Daily 100 is standing at 9777 and Daily 200 is at 8100 (this level is irrelevant for now). Weekly 21 is at 8850 levels so this might present a potential bounce area in between the second and the third resistance boxes.
3. Declining for the last week indicates that the price is ready for a massive move and it will take incremental trades to generate large leaps.
4. There is a good possibility that we draw a massive wick to 10800 levels from here and avert the whole situation but at this point, I think that chances of this taking place are slim.
Stay safe people and have a profitable week-end.
On a positive note, we have moved price action above 200 EMA and SMA on 4 Hour and death cross is quickly reverting back.
In summary, here is my take: If we move in between 10.9- 11.2 I will consider a week-long sideways action before anything else. 11.2-11.8 range will bring higher targets. We still need to resolve the bull flag/triangle formation on a larger structure. Let's see...