The COT Report (Commitments of Traders Report) is a weekly report released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) that shows the aggregate holdings of different market participants in the futures market.
Looking at the COT report for Bitcoin futures on the CME, we can see that as of May 16, 2023, non-commercial traders (speculators) held a net long position of 10,055 contracts, which is an increase of 28 contracts from the previous week. Meanwhile, commercial traders (hedgers) held a net short position of 1,626 contracts, which is an increase of 262 contracts from the previous week. The increase in the net long position of non-commercial traders suggests that they are bullish on the price of Bitcoin, while the increase in the net short position of commercial traders suggests that they are bearish on the price of Bitcoin.
Non-commercial traders (speculators) held a net long position of 10,055 contracts Net long Commercial traders (hedgers) held a net short position of 1,626 contracts Net Short
In general, commercial traders are likely to move more capital on the market than non-commercial traders. Commercial traders are typically large institutions, such as banks and corporations, that use futures markets to hedge their commercial activities and manage their price risk. They are often considered to be "smart money" traders because they have access to more information and resources than individual traders. On the other hand, non-commercial traders are typically speculators who are looking to profit from changes in the market price of the underlying asset. While non-commercial traders may also move significant amounts of capital on the market, their positions are generally smaller than those of commercial traders.
It's important to note, however, that the amount of capital moved by commercial and non-commercial traders can vary depending on a number of factors, including market conditions, the size of individual positions, and the overall sentiment of the market.
While the market is showing Bearish momentum for the past for weeks commercials are slithly offloading their long positions, while retail traders remains more optimistic, But looking at btc monthly cycles, Could be setting up for stop hunt around March low or a setup that might build a higer low in september October when we usually see a low and a pump.
Bitcoin monthly price action before halving and after halving. We can point out that Btc make a low later ever quater of each year and as well as in march which happenned to be 19800$ for March 2023 and a low of 15000$ during November 2022. Now Btc Price is entering and earea where you see lots of choppiness and random price action. A short period of correction that can last from 1 month to several months. And as for seasonal tendencies where stocks and assets tends to show bearishness during May to first two weeks of june could support the old saying of Sell in May and run.
Wakandian
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COT report for Bitcoin futures on the CME, we can see that as of May 16, 2023