Watch 50K for reversal

Greetings everybody,

Here is just minor update as BTC is coming to the 50K target. Now it is definitely not a good moment for the new long position, as market is overbought and stands near desirable level. Important news from Tesla and Morgan Stanley are priced-in mostly and the only setup that we could try is downside retracement. In general, from the perspective of existing bullish momentum it looks risky, so it is, but situation becomes more or less attractive because of near stop placing.

Take a look on 4H chart we have butterfly target and perfect 3-Drive sell that is finalizing it. It means that around 50.20K area it is possible to consider short entry with stops right above this area. So, big risk of direction is compensated by relatively small potential loss. Additionally, you could control the reversal process on lower time frames - 15 min, for example and watch for clear bearish patterns there, such as H&S.

If our suggestion is correct, downside action could be to 42K in a case of butterfly target, or shyer 46K level for 3-Drive only. Potentially it could be big H&S on daily, but this is too extended perspective for current update.

Also keep an eye on interest rates, preferably if they stand flat or start dropping as well.