Volume doesn't seem to support this Wyckoff Distribution idea. Really need bigger sell volume. So, this may just be a short term pullback.
Trade closed: stop reached
⋅
🚨Wyckoff Distribution looks invalidated, no follow-through with bear volume, and Bitcoin is back above $23,000! This was the end of the short-term pullback.
Comment
⋅
Shout out to @noble1ones for the clarification on LPSY that happened today.
Here's a more detailed look at the Wyckoff Distribution + Volume.
🔴 If Bitcoin is going to pullback, I'm looking at it to do this in the next 12 hours. 🔴 In the meantime, usually the altcoins to one last face ripping move up to trap bulls. 🟡 A move above $23,500 will invalidate this idea!
Comment
⋅
🚨 I wouldn't dare short right here!
An alternative scenario is that in the next 24 hours Bitcoin does an Upthrust above $24,000 to take out any short positions before supply finally dominates.
Comment
⋅
If this penultimate phase of the Wyckoff Distribution is going to happen after this Upthrust to $24,000, we'll need to pay close attention to INCREASING bear volume to confirm this idea!
Comment
⋅
Wyckoff Distribution failed. Bullish volume created a change in character. High probability Bitcoin moves higher in the weeks ahead!
Of you look at current CoT Report you can see that the commercials have built up a large netto long position. They increased their buying last week and have now aquired the largest long position over a period of 3 year. So it could rather be a reaccumulation.
ChartCinema
⋅
@Sideshow83, Yes. this could be accumulation. The 1H time frame is not that reliable during a daily uptrend.
Sideshow83
⋅
@ChartCinema, We will see. I really like your analysis though. I'm coming form Elliott wave and try to incorporate Wyckoff into my anlaysis because from my point of view it is very helpful when analysing corrections.
And the second best indicator in my view is the CoT-Report. It also works for BTC. And BTC was really strong over the last 4 weeks. If your interested I post a link to my CoT-analysis. The labeling is in German but numbers speak their own language.
@Sideshow83, Yeah, I look at Elliot Waves too for impulsive moves! I agree that Wyckoff is helpful when observing sideways consolidations. Thanks for the link to your COT analysis.
noble1ones
⋅
Don't throw in the towel yet, in my humble opinion. Mark a LPSY at the high on the hourly time frame at 15:00 EST today the 27th. Notice the wick? Ah HA!, in my humble opinion..........
ChartCinema
⋅
@noble1ones, Thanks for the heads up. You are right!