I originally uploaded this idea 1 week ago, February 10, but then I got banned for breaking a house rule. :( But here it is again!
Thank you for considering reading my idea. Please note that this is just my opinion, and I'm not saying that this is going to happen.
If you have read my previous idea about Bitcoin's pattern, I recommend for you to read it first. See related ideas below.
Now, I am zooming out a bit on the daily charts of Bitcoin . Here we can see Bitcoin peaks and bear markets of 2013-2014, 2017-2018, and possibly 2021-2022.
Let's describe what the circles represent from left to right of each cycle. Also if you're not familiar with the Wall St. Cheat Sheet: Psychology of a Market Cycle, you can search for that :)
1. Green - The Thrill. I guess this could be the last peak before the actual peak of the bull market. This also serves as support which you would see in the next coming circles.
2. Orange - The Peak. This is where euphoria comes in. People are in profit and greedy. I also felt this. Did you?
3. Yellow - The Crash. This is where people experienced fear. People are optimistic that will go higher soon. In 2021's case, it even got higher later at #6 than the peak we experienced from #2.
4. White - The Relief. People are more optimistic that Bitcoin will go higher soon.
5. Pink - The Test. Bitcoin tested the 50 week moving average (yellow line)
6. Blue - The Final Rally. I guess you could say that this is the final distribution phase of the cycle. The difference here is that in 2021, we made a new all time high.
7. Red - The Beginning of the End. We did get a support at the 50 week moving average and break down off it. People are experiencing Anxiety. (See Wall St. Cheat Sheet: Psychology of a Market Cycle)
8. Orange & Yellow - The Final Test. Bitcoin will stay near #1's level (the green circle). People will keep telling you to buy the dip. Lots of fear in market. People are in denial and is still optimistic that we will go again and make all time high. At the end of the circle, it forms a bear trap where the price suddenly pumps higher when investors are expecting to dump down more.
9. Bluegreen - The Final Resistance - Here we will test a significant moving average. In 2014, it was the 20 week moving average (red), while on 2018, it was the 50 week moving average (yellow line). In 2022, it could be either.
10. Purple - The End - Panic, Capitulation, and Anger. These are mostly the sentiment of traders and investors. It will find the bottom at the 200 week moving average (green line)
What now?
Currently, we are or almost in the blue green area. Bitcoin MUST break these resistances and make it as support to invalid this pattern. I think the levels we need to break is around $47,000 (50 week moving average) or $51,000 (20 week moving average). The pattern I showed you does not work 100% but there is a probability that this will happen. Manage your risks well. There is no harm in taking profits.
2013-2014
2017-2018
2021-2022
Thank you for reading my idea. Like this idea and follow me for more analysis like this. NFA . TAYOR. DYOR.
Cheers, Juvs
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Is the cyan circle the current price action and we're heading to the purple circle?
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We went down to the levels of the yellow circle. There could be a possible mini rally with up to 0.5 level of the fib retracement at $40,000
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We are now seeing a potential relief rally. As we can see from the 2014 and 2018 bear market, it does not go above the cyan circle. In the current case, it's at $44-45k. Will we break $44-45k?
Because of the incoming recession, BTC will go lower than 21K, BTC always traded during the 12 year stocks bull market.
Juvssss
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@Ro.goudreau, Do you have any data of a potential recession?
ro.goudreau
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@Juvssss, Just look around you, that's enough, if not, inflation at record high, should be enough.
Juvssss
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@Ro.goudreau, I actually consider the inflation at record high. Are there any other signs? Hehe sorry im not an economist.
TAS1TheActualSnail
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@Ro.goudreau, S&P 500 PE Ratio at start of hiking cycle is at 25 now. in 2004 was 19.4 Just in 99 for the .com bubble was at 30.5, and if the inflation doesn't stop with 7-8 hikes, than a recession is inevitable. Everything is overvalued and needs to cool off a bit, for example 1bn$ was allocated on Gala for a theme park... i think Disneyland is cheaper :D Devs keep dumping on noob investors whom didn't experienced a bearmarket imo.
I did the same analysis bro few weeks ago. And i’ve seen the same correlations. 100% agree with your idea
Juvssss
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@ArsenFreeman, Cool. Although, I would love to have a pump back up to another ATH. Bitcoin needs to invalidate this pattern first. This could be the first time.