I couldn't for the life of me figure out what was going on with BTC over these last few days, but there was something very familiar with the way it's been creeping along..
Then after a comment on my previous idea from @ychangsinata it hit me.
Duh.
(Possible) BEARISH GARTLEY nearing confirmation here on the 4hr.
Fibs are almost TOO perfect -keep in mind, ratios of time are ALWAYS RANGES and never exact numbers.
TWO possible BEARISH HARMONIC scenarios:
BEARISH SCENARIO #1: BEARISH GARTLEY: PA is rejected at current levels and begins to head towards bearish targets: T1: 32.4K - 30.6K T2: 24.8K (which happens to be the AVWAP from the beginning of the parabola)
After correcting -I would assume BTC will resume its uptrend without delay.
BEARISH SCENARIO #2: BEARISH BAT: PA breaks across the overhead resistance of 38.9K and heads up to grab a new ATH in the range of $43.8 - 49.2K, then heads to the same price targets. (XA is likely the same for both HARMONIC PATTERNS, however in the interest of a visual reference, I moved X for SCENARIO #2)
Of course -further confluence is always necessary as well as confirmation PA is remaining within the boundaries of the pattern.... and of course could be INVALIDATED at any moment -it is bitcoin after all.
Adding further confluence to the BEARISH IDEA here. GARTLEY patterns do tend to come in pairs, the BULLISH GARTLEY on the left fits PERFECTLY within the fibs, as does the second BEARISH GARTLEY. If PA moves into the "INVALIDATION AREA", $40.116 - the BEARISH idea is invalidated
BitCapJNY
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BEARISH DEEP CRAB** NOT "BAT".. my bad on that
BitCapJNY
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Scenario #2 could still play out, but I've changed my sentiment over the last 24 hours. Bearish Harmonics tend to show up at the end of strong BULLISH TRENDS (.. vs. BULLISH HARMONICS tend to show themselves at the end of BEARISH TRENDS). It had appeared that BULLISH MOMENTUM was slowing down -hence the formation of VALID GARTLEY patterns.
Let's review why bullish momentum resumed:
1) MICROSTRATEGY's BITCOIN FOR CORPORATIONS CONFERENCE
2) +100MM influx of buy volume at critical support yesterday (37K)
3) Support held above the 4hr 21EMA
4) DXY flipped BEARISH heading into the weekend
The INVALIDATION of these HARMONIC PATTERNS is still a useful clue -it is a BULLISH CONFIRMATION when BEARISH PATTERNS break BULLISH.
We're going up :)
ASCENDING TRIANGLE forming here -a VERY BULLISH continuation pattern.
N0ST0PL0SS
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Great set up! I have a similar idea.
BTC has been giving a lot of quality patterns in this channel. Waiting for the right moment to take advantage of the next.
What do you mean ratios of time are ALWAYS RANGES and never exact numbers?
BitCapJNY
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@AmarPearson, Finding points - "A", "B", "C", and "D" are entirely dependent on where you decide your point "X" is. However, these points must also be swing highs and lows that form within fibonacci time frames (use the fib time tool in Trading view)
BitCapJNY
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@AmarPearson, also -deciding where your point "X" is when plotting ANY Harmonic Pattern does not follow any specific set of metrics... so the probability of a successful pattern relies heavily on placing these "correctly". There is a VERY high probability that these Harmonics in my charts are purely coincidental. That is why I use them to find confluence for RE ENTRY ideas in a bull market vs. Short and/or Selling Ideas (in a bull market)
N0ST0PL0SS
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@BitCapJNY, Ahhhh, I get you. I'll definitely try to use the fib time tool moving forward to see how my different patterns correlate vs results. Thanks for the insight!
@LonesomeTheBlue has made a very useful harmonic pattern script that can save you some time on figuring out points along with some pattern predictions. One of the best parts is that you can change the error rate and zig zag period to give you different perspectives. Good luck!
BitCapJNY
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@AmarPearson, absolutely -thank you to you as well!
ychangsinata
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hi, have placed your long entry? I'm currently waiting on the sideline and wait for the 4HR candle closed to above 38.75K, and will look for confirmation from the Volume & the MACD. Any insight appreciated! Thank you