We are now undoubtedly in the beginnings of an impulse wave. Every indicator (RSI, PPO, ADX and Stochastic RSI on 1D chart) is showing the same sign.
I have this labelled as wave 5 supercycle.
I use a "contrarian" approach to trading in that I have noticed time after time that when everyone is bullish, a correction is imminent, and when everyone is bearish, the next rally is about to begin. When everyone was bullish early-mid December, I was exiting trades into fiat, redistributing funds amongst my core holdings, and not entering into any new long positions.
Since early February I have bullish, gradually entering short terms trades, and generally spending a lot more time reading graphs and researching.
In my experience, the best thing to do during a correction is to: 1. Be prepared 2. Take a break from trading & the computer during corrections and/or have a vacation (large corrections e.g. July, September and December 2017 typically last 1-2 months. Buying back in earlier than a month is risky, so there's no better time to take on another hobby or occupy yourself with other things you enjoy. Patience = profit!
90% of traders lose money. The money they make are others losses. Not everyone can make money, and so it stands to reason that what the "herd" believes is happening or going to happen is almost invariably wrong.
The growth we've seen in bitcoin this past year is enormous, and this outlook may seem overly optimistic, but Wave 5 is characterized by your mums, dads, grandparents, your local shop owner - everyone - getting invested in a market. The larger the time frame the Wave 5 is on, the bigger the phenomena. This is a supercycle timeframe so this is THE wave 5. That, and bitcoins deflationary nature is a huge driving force behind positive price movement.
That being said, we have 2 key problems with bitcoin moving forward: 1. Transactions fees reached $55 USD in mid-december! As they're proportional to the number of transaction numbers, they are inevitably going to skyrocket and this really stops bitcoin from being used in the same manner as fiat currencies - i.e. buying coffee, filling the car with petrol, getting a bite to eat etc. This serves only to keep bitcoin as a fringe investment and will keep it from true mainstream adoption, which will certainly be achieved by other cryptocurrencies. It just isn't practical in any sense to use bitcoin for day-to-day, small transactions. 2. Bitcoin paved the way for this market to blossom, but its technology is dated, majority consensus is near impossible to achieve which stifles any innovation, and the potential and practical application of almost every other cryptocurrency in the top 15 is superior to bitcoin.
I think we will see the hype of bitcoin continue for some time yet, but we need to be continually wary of these aforementioned rate-limiting steps to bitcoins growth.
My prediction is an extended Wave 1 (reflecting ongoing hype) of the Wave 5 supercycle, followed by a 61.8% correction. After this, my predictions are educated guesses at best, but I've included them anyway.
I use fibonacci time and price retracements and extensions, time cycles and channels for this prediction.
I expect bitcoin to reach $50,000 USD by the end of May 2018. After this corrects to ~23k, it is anyone's guess as to where bitcoin's price will go.
I think it is too early to say the down trend is broken. lets see how it does from 10-11+k. its not in safe zone yet.
evactrade
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@evactrade, I believe we have only completed wave 3 now and on 4. after 5 it might continue to follow larger downtrend line to complete daily wave 5.
samiswilf
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"Wave 5 is characterized by your mums, dads, grandparents, your local shop owner - everyone - getting invested in a market." Dude no one will use a currency that early folks got 1000x cheaper to get rich free. The people will demand a fresh crypto currency where everyone gets in at the same amount so no one gets freebees. And probably that's what the gov will do. The Bitcoin ecosystem is a zero sum casino game where bitcoins are used as the gambling chips, nothing more. Get your mind right buddy.
jjbb11
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@samiswilf, I am referring to the crypto market more generally - as I say bitcoin's future is uncertain as a) transaction fees prevent it being used like a fiat currency and b) there are far better cryptos ready to take its place.
However, I stand by the fact that crypto and bitcoin are, to most people, synonymous, and so people getting invested in this market (which is definitely reaching the mainstream adoption phase), will buy bitcoin if for no other reason than its basically the "reserve currency" of crypto - almost everything is transferred to bitcoin before it's invested in other cryptos.
samiswilf
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I repeat: The Bitcoin ecosystem is a zero sum casino game where bitcoins are used as the gambling chips, nothing more. Get your mind right buddy.
jjbb11
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@samiswilf, Yes it is zero-sum. Yes it is (educated) gambling. Does that mean you can't make money? Certainly not.
90% of traders lose money; 99%+ of gamblers lose money.
For it to be zero-sum, that money made by the winners = that lost by the losers.
Making money trading is difficult - but the reward to self-evident.
Those who know what they are doing, even if they have only just now become invested in this market, can still make a fortune.