BTC has so far failed to make any of the bullish scenario moves and has recently made a break that may be confirmative of the bear scenario.
An Elliot wave based failure of the uptrend would typically look something like this.
First big target of 40K for the short. Some bull trap/ chop and then continuation.
And it's not just BTC. Everything looks terrible.
ETH went into the classic bull trap zone and did this:
MSTR slammed into major resistance:
And did this:
COIN was screaming short setups:
And has done this:
Things are looking grim.
Into the high the bear patterns could be considered subtle. If you are looking for bull patterns it's easy to see them at highs. Spike out patterns are something easier to miss.
But it's not subtle now!
If the next level of breaks succeed I think we're going to see BTC down 30% more from where it trades right now.
And these related stocks would look insane on the monthly charts if that happened. They already look sketchy.
I sort of expected a harmonic high scenario (a pump into the halving) and then a medium term bear market, but it doesn't see like the pump is happening.
holeyprofit
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@vseasalt, Looked a lot like the butterfly would form at one point but then trunchinated. From experience setting limit orders for butterfly fills I find when they do not fill there can be strong breaks.
MyCryptoParadise_Nathan
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we can expect small correction, not that much
molbioinfo
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30K being touched a few times already, do you think the potential scenario is so grim as to break it to the downside? I see the predicted trend on the plot, I mean more if you could comment on the TA for that kind of event?
> do you think the potential scenario is so grim as to break it to the downside?
I'd say the odds on the bear break now have to be at least 75/25 in favour. The TA for the forecast here is based on the Elliot scenario and result of a false breakout detailed in this post.
holeyprofit
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@molbioinfo, The breaking of 60K may put us in a spot similar to this forecast of the previous drop to 15K.
molbioinfo
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@holeyprofit, 75/25 for under 60K I can see, 62K already rejected once in short timeframe. 30K is not that far, but under 30K, phew... grim and frosty.
holeyprofit
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@molbioinfo, 59xxxx traded and I don't think 60K should have traded in a bear move.
If a false breakout is being made, the rules of the game going forward can be very different.
molbioinfo
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@holeyprofit let's hope for the best, while preparing for the worst. Thanks!