With Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) continuous bullish run, day after day, running basically the 7th straight green month, we thought it may be a good time to put things into a greater perspective from a macro point of view, as many seem confused over this hyper aggressive bullish sentiment.
The reason is one and one alone and has a very short name: E T F
Yes, everyone that is following the market knows that on January 11 2024, the first Bitcoin ETF was launched on the U.S. market and after a quick dip, the price has been rising every since. Other macro factors are playing their role, such as the AI technological innovation, the upcoming Halving, the anticipation of Fed rate cuts by June etc. But BTC has never made a new All Time High (ATH) before the Halving before, and this is primarily attributed to the ETFs introduction.
What better case to compare Bitcoin's price action to Gold's following its own ETF launch. That was done on March 28 2003 and the result you can see on the right hand chart. Gold used its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as a Support to fuel an 8 year parabolic rally, which only broken during the shock of the 2008 Housing Crisis, but still managed to recover the extend the rally until August 2011.
That peak almost on the 4.0 Fibonacci extension level from the High (January 1996) that preceded Gold's ETF. If Bitcoin follows a similar trend to Gold's (note that Gold's market cap is around $14.530 Trillion, while BTC's is 'only' $1.445 Trillion), it can reach and even surpass emphatically the $1000000 mark (the 4.0 Fib for Bitcoin is at $6 million). Crazy as this may sound (well that's Bitcoin's life story, everything has been 'crazy' at $1, then $10, $100, it was deemed expensive by some even at $1000 and so on), there is no time restriction nor the necessity to reach seemingly extraordinary levels in 8 years or 10. As the market matures, fiat currencies are devalued by more inflation etc, and adoption is accelerated, this may be a process that takes up 15, 20, 30 years. The key, not just for fund managers but also average investors, is to hold Bitcoin in their portfolios just as it has been paying off since 2003 to hold Gold.
Buy what do you think about these two assets and their potential similarities of their post ETF trends? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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One should think of timeline as well. This ain't 99 anymore. Things happen exponentially faster now, the price is good. Imagine Inecption: 1 hour now is 1 week in 99 or so. The world is connected for the ready-to-jump ones, and ultimately this is a network effect with already-existing "let's connect" psychology of individual.
This will happen in the next 9-15 months.
Coinlion_TT
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I must say that you are very good. I think that we should have a short correction around 75K (-20%) before going up any further. There are a lot of liquidation orders. What do you think?
David_Aus
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@Coinlion_TT Multiple Bitcoin ETF funds are opening up around the world and a 20% dip from 75k would mean retesting 60k. The buying pressure might not let it get that low. The SEC leads the world in regulation clarity and now they have accepted Bitcoin as legitimate the final FUD barrier is behind and the gold rush has begun in earnest. These prices are low now. You can see the dips have been shallow. For example, the ATH dip was over in a blink.
Coinlion_TT
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@David_Aus, I totally agree but did you see that 2B$ worth of shorts will get liquidated once BTC hit 75K ?
B-17
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@Coinlion_TT, volatility/quick spikes and some chop feels more likely that a dip that size, at least rn.
filzffffff
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In the previous graph you posted you were forecasting 60k coming soon, now to the moon. Coherence please
TradingShot
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@filzffffff, Don't confuse an +8 year forecast to a 1D analysis please.
B-17
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@TradingShot, exactly, great long term vision, TS, Thanks