Most traders think that BTC has been only bullish throughout 2019 but believe it or not it has printed the exact same pattern in late December 2018 and early January 2019.
That time it was still coming off what would later prove to be its bottom (3200) on the last Bear Cycle and after an initial rebound, it formed a Channel Down. That was extended, after a Death Cross occurrence, until early February and 3400 on the price tag, where the accumulation process accelerated and gradually made a High after High and never saw these levels again.
That was up until recently with Bitcoin printing again the first Channel Down on Lower Highs/ Lower Lows since early 2019! The similarities between the two patterns are astonishing. The current Channel Down has just priced the second Lower Low while forming the Death Cross. The distance between the current Lower Highs and Lower Lows with the 2019 pattern is identical. Does this mean that BTC has still one last low to give on a slow, gradual decline before resuming the uptrend? Not impossible at all.
What's really interesting for me as a trader is that during the early 2019 Channel Down, traders were still puzzled as to whether or not the Bear Market has ended, with the majority still believing that the bottom was not priced in.
Similarly, the current price action has again traders puzzled as to whether or not this is just a pull back on the emerging Bull Market, with the majority expecting a much deeper bottom, even the reversal to a new Bear Market!
Which scenario do you think will prevail? Do you think that this comparison can serve as a guide for the next two months?
I am really interested in reading your opinion and see your own charts in the comments section!