For having a better idea about the scale and location of my analysis I added this snapshot of the BTC chart in the daily timeframe:
About the core of my idea: My analysis is based on the 5h timeframe, in which i spotted the potential BUY chance.
So I spotted this interesting downtrend channel.
We saw a strong 6% bullish move today, so I wouldn't enter right now. Patience is key. So what I am waiting for is something like this:
I am waiting for the price to, once again, touch the lower line of the channel, and then find enough support to take off (maybe for the last time in a while).
How far is the current bullish move probably going? As I said before, I am expecting it to come back down, and then take off bigger. We might see price bounce off the red bar I marked right here, and then seek support at the lower side of my channel in order to finally break the red zone.
In case all this happens, what is the trade going to look like? What I am expecting from this trade? The most likely scenario is that we make an approach to the green line, which I named "bouncer".
From there we might actually retrace as low as the 50%, or even 100% level on the downside, just like this:
Of course, it is possible that we even make new all-time-highs and chase the upside 50% and 100%, or even 125% extension target, which I identified with my system. Then, we might see numbers like 69.000, or 85.000 in the future.
------- of course, all that is just speculations. I am very open minded for both ideas, a hard correction, or another bull-run. What I will focuse on is catching the next bullish wave - regardless of how far it will reach towards the sky - or the moon - or mars. My trade will approximately look like this:
Depending on where or when we touch that lower line of the channel, I am eyeballing an approximate initial RRR of 10 to 1, using approx. 2% risk (unleveraged). As I will not sell my entire position once we hit the green "bouncer" line, but only a part of it, the RRR will later improve drastically.
ALL THAT IS FAR AWAY IN THE FUTURE AND REQUIRES THE PRICE TO HIT MY LOWER CHANNEL LINE AGAIN. Otherwise - I'm dropping this idea. Never chase a trade and don't be afraid to miss out on the big moves. Be careful out there. Thank you for reading.
PS: Feel free to download this analysis for better understanding or scaling.
Phenomenal, although, I genuinely think we'll never see another $25-30k BTC again. I could be wrong, but we'll see. Depends on how these next few weeks play out. What you did here was great, and I'd like to bet on the first scenario, a fake out, a strong rejection, and then a STRONGER bounce off of the descending channel you've drawn up. Wish you well.
AlphaTradingGermany
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@jweirdlo, Thank you for your reply. Well, that's the genuinely relaxed thing about trading and sticking to a system and applying a strategy. You don't have to "think". All you'd wanna do is stick with what works for you, and apply it correctly.
Personally, I don't think we will go that low either. But I didn't think of hitting 69k either, and yet I had a target there. Turns out my target was right and my thoughts were wrong. That's why I have stopped the process of "thinking" and "feeling" when I analyse charts, or when I execute trades. :)