I believe the altcoin/token bubble is over. Most of the altcoin charts I see point down and the same goes for Bitcoin. I am of the opinion that this bubble popping will bring Bitcoin down with it (but to a much lesser extend).
Also, as you might have heard, Bitcoin has had a problem upgrading due to some miners blocking the upgrade. However, this will probably come to an end in August either in a 'peaceful' or a 'violent' way. The situation will be getting clearer and clearer by late July and early August, but for me the outcome is pretty much very certain : Segwit (the so much anticipated upgrade), will kick in smoothly in August. That alone could pump the price by 2k in less than a week. The issue is when will we know for sure? Unfortunately only a few players will know precisely when, so the only thing we can do is trade based on price behaviour or buy and hold below 2000$ (or if you have the stomach, buy now.)
On the techical side :
I think the bear trend has started for good. My momentum indicators are pointing down. Price failed to make new highs and fell after hitting hard resistance. If the 2200-2300 levels don't hold, we are in serious trouble. These are good short term levels to go long, but not ideal for longer timeframes.
Below I created some tradingview images using various charts and exchanges, as I think that people shouldn't trade based only on one exchanges. My original chart is an average of the top 6 Bitcoin USD exchanges : Bitstamp, Bitfinex, Gemini, BTC-e, Kraken (LOL), Coinbase (LOL x2)
BTCChina - This one shows that the support has broken and if the red line is broken, we are going down... Bitstamp 4H - Momentum + Oscillators - All bearish Bitstamp 1D - Momentum + Oscillators - All bearish Bitfinex log chart BTC-e log chart
And finally this is a kinda complex chart I created, based on various non USD exchanges. You can see the pairs and the ratios I've used for each pair. The ratios are kinda arbitrary, but I've considered various factors before choosing them - i.e volumes, fees, withdrawal issues and geolocation. Somehow it seems to be working very very well, and by this I mean that former resistance becomes support and former support becomes resistance.
Conclusion: there is some statement that i agree with you and not.
I agree that Altcoin may effect to Bitcoin marrket
I don't agree that it's an uptrend for a bitcoin. it's more likely over buy. and may feel in anytime.
I don't know what will happened if BTC market drops in 2000$. Me when BTC hit 2000$ i will invest some of my money in bitcoin, before that i surely will take a analysis as a Price movement in the next momentum.
share your thought @nottsy
BitcoinMacro
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@adityadoodle9, Ethereum has way more fundamental issues than an exchange which affects Bitcoin too. Ethereum is a scam and a stupid project. Both from a technological and structural point of view. It will crash, completely within the next year. Mark my words. And that will excert downward pressure on Bitcoin temporarily.
To me, it is always time to buy Bitcoin if you are going to invest in it. I've been getting into Bitcoin and trading, slowly, since late 2013 and I find it more attractive to invest now, than when it was at 250$. 2000$ is a very good buying point regardless of where the price goes in the short term. Even if it falls to 1300.
When it comes to oscillators they might be helpful, but I mainly like looking at price structure. Bitcoin tends to behave very well in the respect. Fibonnaci, trendlines and support/resistance are the most useful tools in Bitcoin in my opinion.
adityadoodle9
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@nottsy, i just know a little bit about How Ethereum works. as you can see the price ETH is so intense it's worth at least 0.12 BTC.
Tell me how do you know by the end of august Bitcoin worth about 3 thousand dollar?
I would be glad if i can see your analysis
BitcoinMacro
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@adityadoodle9, My analysis is purely fundamental analysis. There is a lot of money waiting on the sidelines to buy Bitcoin when the so heated scaling debate resolves itself. This upgrade I am talking about and some other factors have been keeping Bitcoin down, and has helped pump all these useless shitcoins.
Upgrades don't happen on specific dates, but follow some complex 'voting' mechanisms. At the time being, it looks like this is going to be resolved in early or mid August. If that goes well, a lot of the Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt will go away and trust in Bitcoin will be strengthened. Not only this, but many more projects will be allowed to function on top of Bitcoin that provide real utility and therefore pump the price even more!
The security, code and ecosystem of Bitcoin, is far more superior than that of any other coin, but people need time and some sort of proof to realise that. A lot of the money that went into these scams, will flow back into Bitcoin pretty soon and Bitcoin will hit 10k in 2018 for sure. Much of the value of shitcoins comes from things that haven't been build on top of Bitcoin YET. However, many solutions and projects are coming soon!
adityadoodle9
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@nottsy, fine. i am buying at 2100 level. a grand for that,
Hope your statement are true
brewmaster48
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Do you mean to say that the top is in for good, or that this is just a pause in the bull?
BitcoinMacro
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@brewmaster48, Well, it really depends on what you mean for good. If for good is the next 4 weeks, then yes. If for good is the next 4 months then no.
I believe that in August we'll get a ot of volatility and by the end of August we'll be above 3k.
filjur
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@brewmaster48, I think it's going to cool 'till October.
filjur
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I agree with you, very good TA. Looking at my parallel channel all away from 2012 on logarithmic scale it reached the perfect top. From past, trend reversals that go back to long, went when it corrected to 0,50 or 0,618 or 0,382, as usual fibo works. And on this next example from 0,618,0,50,0,382 reverse points are 1893,1701 and 1509. I'm also watching ETH/USD and LTC/USD, they have similar pattern, but they still haven't reached the top like BTC did already. This is my opinion.
BitcoinMacro
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@fjurincic, Without using Fibo in this case, I agree with the 1900, 1700 and 1500. I believe that 1900 has a 25% chance of being the lowest point, 40% for 1700 and 35% for 1500. Testing 1300-1350$ is possible too and probably will happen on some exchanges. A full retracement to shake out the newbies and then rally to 5k.
'Unfortunately' for various reasons, the 2970 is the final top to me, at least for the next few weeks. Definitely not the top for the year though.
I use a combination of exchanges to guess the direction. By analysing single exchanges I estimate the areas where I am buying and selling. I always go for areas and never for single prices as that usually fails. I've done some sort of ranking in my head, based on which exchanges behave better for TA and the results are : 1) BTCE:BTCSD - 2) KRAKEN:XBTEUR - 3) BTCCHINA:BTCCNY - 4) OKCOIN 3M Futures ( OKCOIN:BTCUSD3M ) - 5) BITFINEX:BTCUSD
However i try to recreate my bitcoin chart in 200 day using bitstamp as an exchange.
I usually use MACD to predict the falling price of an BTC.
and this is what i got.
Techincal indicator Analysis :
MACD is going down very sharply today it reach 70 (isn't close yet)
RSI indicate a bearish signal.
Fundamental Analysis :
ETH GDAX Exchange issues.
Can be found in : twitter.com/GDAX?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
Conclusion: there is some statement that i agree with you and not.
I agree that Altcoin may effect to Bitcoin marrket
I don't agree that it's an uptrend for a bitcoin. it's more likely over buy. and may feel in anytime.
I don't know what will happened if BTC market drops in 2000$. Me when BTC hit 2000$ i will invest some of my money in bitcoin, before that i surely will take a analysis as a Price movement in the next momentum.
share your thought @nottsy