Bitcoin recovers and continues the rally this year, kind of like the double rally in 2013. This would lead to 150k by the end of the year or early 2022.
Or bitcoin takes the slow route with a retest of 20k, this means 215k by late 2022.
Let us see how the indicators will look by August, that's when we hopefully will be able to tell if it's just a bounce or if the rally does continue.
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Recovery rally has started. Now it will be really important to see how high this will go. Will it be able to avoid the death cross, and will BTC be able to get through the falling resistance line? If yes, we have good chances of resuming the bulltrend fairly soon.
If not, we will probably revisit 20k and the weekly MA200.
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Still no interesting price movement. BTC tries to bore us to death after this insane price action a month ago.
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Unfortunately, this here could also happen:
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Currently I think this here is the most likely scenario, because a bullish divergence is building up in the 3d RSI:
Then afterwards, we will have to see.
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In the next 2 months, BTC will decide which route it will take, it will be an extremely exciting time !
Nice work, thank you. Hope we got the healthy and slow route, it will bring more traders in and it will build trust. The other route - fast and fake (pumped) it's not healthy for BTC and for us. We should wait the zone around 20K and all go in, then we will see full power of BTC. What you think?
SebastianofMoon
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@prontobg, Hi, I agree, I would also prefer the slow route. This does not only present an excellent trading opportunity for exiting at the bounce and re-entering at 20k (with a portion, never full in or out), but the final ATH price will also be higher.
simplejoe1
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@prontobg, could go to 10k or maybe lower if the governments try to squash it with regulations
ApeTrader77
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Great idea! The slow route matches what I think might happen and hope to happen as well. Who knows though, we could be looking at 150 in July-September :)
juarezhernandez164
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Do you no longer suggest a break of upper trendline to 300k ? Not nessessary but it would indeed make sense if we top at the end of 2022 with all these monetary circumstances .
SebastianofMoon
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@juarezhernandez164, Hi, yes, I think a break of the upper trendline is really unlikely. I have looked into the stock to flow model, and have found it to be flawed in many ways.
I think it grossly overestimates BTC's price targets and that's a big reason why many people like it. I will make a post on why exactly I think that PlanB's model will turn out to be wrong, and why the simple logarithmic power law will turn out to be the correct model.
allkrystals
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Thank you for your idea. I think the longer and slow scenario is more healthy for market, but hope there will be enough steam (QE and gov. stimulus :) ) for long term bull run. I wonder what do you think about altcoins future, and their correlation with potential btc consolidation. Looks like f.e. SOLANA ignores BTC heavy and ETH with upcoming Eip1559 might go its own way too.
SebastianofMoon
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@allkrystals, The altcoins could have another altcoin season in between, possibly when BTC has hit the bottom and starts to recover. There will remain altcoin correlation with btc for quite some time to come, even though sometimes the correlation strength seems to change over time.
Bitcoin_Weather
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VERY slow route ...
Morteza-Emzajerdi
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Your reasoning sounds logical. Thanks for sharing.