I can't believe i am posting this chart, it almost goes against my big game plan that i had for quite some time now. Since the 6K levels i was calling that we needed to shake out all the bears AND that we needed to make them bulls again. Here is my confession, they ALMOST made me a bull :) LOL. So i almost tricked my self as well. That's why having a plan upfront is important (sometimes), so you can fall back on that instead of getting caught up in all the emotions of this market. I mentioned a few days or a week ago, that i was starting to get the same feeling we (and i) had during that rally from the 6K to the 11K. That blue period back than was a very confusing week for me, almost the same is the blue area we had last week. This time i was less stubborn, also made short trades there but also long trades. Even i am still learning every day, with my almost 20 years experience.
My biggest (confusing) issue NOW was, that we did nog see a real correction since this whole rally started, price just kept on going higher and higher like all the problems were history and FOMO was/is in full force. In that blue area 2 months ago we could at least see a clear fight between bulls and bears, but this time that sideways action just seemed so controlled, i could not tell how much influence the Big boys would have and how high they wanted to push this market again. That's why i started to doubt certain things. My followers know through all my updates how i have been thinking the past few days.
Why did i say i can't believe i am posting this chart, because this one says we could make another rally towards 10.500 before really making another drop . These are not the best fractals, but when you look closely you can see allot of similarities. Especially the yellow area we are in now. This would mean that even though we made a big and fast drop now, does not mean this rally is already over! I showed that big a few days ago, and said that it had a target around the 10.500. That triangle we made around the 8800 also has the same target. So when price stays above the 8800/8700 we have to assume we will see another rally towards the 10.500. The neckline of the around 8200 has to hold for bulls to be able to make that rally.
Why is 10.500 so conflicting for me? It's not a very big issue, but that chart i posted a few weeks ago (just like my previous analysis) says we have to stay below the 10.200/9.800 for this market to remain 100% . So ideally this drop should be it already, but i can't ignore this chart and it's patterns. But for this to happen, we do need to see a small rally towards the 9400 soon! If we hang around the 9000 to long, than it will show to much weakness and we could see another wave down.
In my updates yesterday i showed a parabolic pattern on the low time frame, which was weakening and since than we made that big drop to 9200. Today i showed that that was created because of this, but the dissapointing thing NOW was, the right shoulder was so small (in time and price), wondering where all the bulls are this time? The target around 8700 is already reached so it would fit the chart above that we have found support and go up from here. Does not have to be a straight line up of course!
It's not that THIS is it, the sell off was quite big and fast, making allot of people afraid again. That's why i have been saying for weeks now, that this market needs healthy correction's so these fast and scary drops don't happen.
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Now to be clear, this blue line i drew, is based on nothing more than a guess!
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Funny to see, how an almost unstoppable bull rally, just extreme strength, not ready to make any corrections, all of a sudden seems to be so weak, just like a month ago. If this is not a more clear sign, that there are some big players at work here, than i don't know what is.
Because of the pattern and the location (after yesterday’s big drop), chances are bigger it will break downwards. I said yesterday that It should not take TOO long to go higher again. Bulls still have a chance, but they need to take it soon!!
9200 is a big resistance, so it won't be an easy one to break. But if bulls keep up this momentum now than it will break
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