BTCUSD. Since 6. Feb bottom I left bearish wave counts on backyard but now we have to contemplate them again. Bearish action since up trend was stopped at medium term trendline (pink) on 5. Mar was very aggressive and gave impression that big Bear is back. In last 4 days market was plunging in the space full of supports without even noticing them. It can be something more, then usual correction of previous growth as I thought.
And yet it may only be interlude of second part of market drama. If huge wave 4 (red) from Dec. 2017 tops was not over (in February at 6000) and prepares to serve main course now, then we'll see a lot of stress and blood on the market. Price target of its subwave Z (blue) can be in 3000 area (orange support line) .
It looks dreadful, but when we take into account the whole BTC growth from 200 USD in 2014 to 20000 USD in 2017, from this perspective even this 85% lost of value would still be a healthy correction on bull market. Sounds ironic.
I didn't expect that bearish storm will return so soon but I have to reflect new reality and replace my basic scenario from bullish to bearish count. Bullish count is still valid (until 6000 low holds), but its probability is decreased and it goes in the shadow until we'll get hints that market is getting strong again.
Correct actions according new scenario would be to Short or reduce coins on bounces. It'd better to have some cash aside to step in on deeper levels.
And yet it may only be interlude of second part of market drama. If huge wave 4 (red) from Dec. 2017 tops was not over (in February at 6000) and prepares to serve main course now, then we'll see a lot of stress and blood on the market. Price target of its subwave Z (blue) can be in 3000 area (orange support line) .
It looks dreadful, but when we take into account the whole BTC growth from 200 USD in 2014 to 20000 USD in 2017, from this perspective even this 85% lost of value would still be a healthy correction on bull market. Sounds ironic.
I didn't expect that bearish storm will return so soon but I have to reflect new reality and replace my basic scenario from bullish to bearish count. Bullish count is still valid (until 6000 low holds), but its probability is decreased and it goes in the shadow until we'll get hints that market is getting strong again.
Correct actions according new scenario would be to Short or reduce coins on bounces. It'd better to have some cash aside to step in on deeper levels.