Bitcoin is very Bullish Long Term following all previous halving events which is coming up in March 2024. Anything can and will happen between now and then so do not take this as any type of Short Term analysis. Bitcoin could easily drop 5K between now and then.
The "H" markings are the Halving events. Our present PA is copying (loosely) the same PA from the 2013-2016 time period. (Yellow Boxes). This would put price somewhere in the 45K range for the Halving event in March '24 (follow both dashed White Lines for the price target). I think we will fall short of that price because of an overall slow market and economic uncertainty and will be closer to the 40K price. If this cycle plays out like it did before we should hit a new ATH right around Dec '24 (Blue Line) following the 2024 election in Nov. (very important event). This will kick off the bullrun of 2025 and reaching the 250K range around July (Green Rectangle). This price also corresponds with the "Plan B" model which I did an analysis on in a previous chart.
Key Dates: March 2024: Halving Event 40-45K Nov 2024: Election Dec 2024: New ATH at 69K (Blue Line) and beginning of the 2025 Bullrun. July-Aug 2025 (Green Box): New High at 250K, this is more than my original target of 180K which I feel is justified by the past 4 years of pent up energy. "Irrational Exuberance" could push it up into the 300K range. "Who let the dogs out". Aug-Nov 2026: Following a 12-14 month bear market will see a bottom in the 60-62K range. There will be strong support here (Red Rectangle) and will create a new trend line for the next cycle (Yellow Dashed Line). If this line changes drastically then the top solid Yellow Line will have to change accordingly to create the new channel and could become the White Solid Line which would suppress the long term price of Bitcoin greatly. Jan 2027 will mark the start of the next cycle (Heavy Red Line). July-Aug-Sept 2029: New ATH 1Million, Marked on the chart.
Good to see someone throwing out genuine bottom side targets. I think my lowest target currently sits around 6k.
cldx
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@JMSBurton, I have certainly given prices like 6K or 9K some serious consideration and here's what I came up with. There isn't anything in the PA or cycle that suggests we would just go there on its own. In other words, it's a situation that will have to be "forced" on to the market which certainly has some possibilities in today's political environment. Total market collapse and everyone needs liquid cash on hand? People throwing money at a falling stock market to prop it up? Many scenarios to consider. However Bitcoin also has a lot of people holding just for the reason that the stock market might collapse, like gold and silver. If the dollar goes into hyper inflation then Bitcoin is a safe haven investment. In fact, I can see a lot of people accepting it for everyday commerce which would maintain a "street value". So if the dollar collapses, wild scenario but possible, Bitcoin might drop to 6K maybe even lower, but if the dollar has no value then what difference does it make if it's $500. The only thing that's going to matter is whether you own any or not.
We are in rather unique times. On one hand is the speculator and on the other hand is the survivalist. My chart is geared toward an optimistic outcome, price will continue going up based on the fundamentals of a functioning economy. Remove the functioning part and absolutely anything is a possibility.
JMSBurton
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@cldx, while I do concur that all of those fundamentals are in play, I keep my Analysis objective using EWT only, and have concluded similar findings.
Overall, I am bullish on BTC, however, as an EWT practitioner, I can not refute the fact that the correction must finish prior to the next Bull Run.
If you want more information regarding my analysis for a more holistic picture of price action, read my October , and .
arvine11
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Great
day0
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very nice
day0
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Still in play.
JTCyberFM
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I can dig it... very realistic 2024 calls.... 2025? we'll see.