Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is only a few days before the new Halving event and is already below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 2 months, having broken the previous Ascending Triangle pattern.
This is a sequence that we have seen before during the previous Halving (May 11 2020). Of course the Halving took place at the start of the Ascending Triangle and not after it broke but we want to grasp the general picture and as you see the price action around this critically important fundamental event is very similar.
The goal now is for BTC to hold its 1D MA100 (green trend-line) intact as it did in June 2020 (also held it last time on January 23 2024, which delivered a remarkable rebound) and attract new long-term buyers. Notice also the similar 1D RSI Falling Wedge patterns.
The 2020 Triangle reached its 2.0 Fibonacci extension, so that is our next medium-term Target at $90000.
Do you think the 2020 fractal will be repeated? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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That is a very good observation. Thanks for your idea
TradingShot
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@Ether2020, Thank you for the donation. Much appreciated.
AlanSantana
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This is a very strong comparison but I still think we move lower. Thanks a lot for sharing.
Coinlion_TT
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Or like this :
TradingShot
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@Coinlion_TT, Elaborate more on your chart. Please don't just post it without any constructive argument.
Coinlion_TT
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@TradingShot, sure. People are selling the news. + we are entering in a short position with plenty of room for the RSI to go down (daily). I think that the correction is not finished yet. It could go down more. Not sure we will go to the 45K but a spike to the 100ema could be a good entry point (around 59k). Nevertheless, if we break the support, could be bloody till the 200sma (46k). To resume, we might follow the tunnel till we break up or down.
@Coinlion_TT, Thank you for the feedback. I doubt we will see 45k before the next Cycle Top. Even then, the ETF element is capable enough to alter the traditional cycle theory we've known until this point.
melbicrypt
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@TradingShot, I agree with you here. We should see price go up to about 70k drop closer to 60k before rallying upwards. It's also possible that the short term pull back will end closer 67k after hitting 70k. I agree with your long term analysis of 90k being the next top for this rally.
RocketBomb
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@TradingShot, I really love comparisons! It will be very interesting to see how the price behaves further. But I think, it's high probability of seeing the price at the level of $58,000 soon. Whether the price will go even lower is hard to say at the moment.