BTC Bear Market? A december to remember

My downside targets for bitcoin include the previous all-time high of December 2017 at 20k being the lowest I'm expecting Bitcoin to go, the level of psychology here would mean that many people will have lost confidence in the market due to the bearish sentiment. The key to this is 42k if the .66 Fibonacci retracement zone doesn't hold then 37.7k will be the next level I'm expecting us to go down to.

I'm going to be watching the CBOE volatility index closely, the definition on Investopedia is "it generates a 30-day forward projection of volatility. Volatility, or how fast prices change, is often seen as a way to gauge market sentiment, and in particular the degree of fear among market participants." This will be the key to identifying an incoming big move, evidence of this can be found during May 2020.
I'm expecting big profit takings to occur on the entirety of the market, stock, crypto.

For more information on the volatility index, checked the linked related idea below.

Comment:

Bitcoin has come up to the .5 Fibonacci ratio at 48.8k which is a level of resistance currently.

Comment:

The current expanding falling wedge that's playing out on smaller timeframes; has formed a local double top.