Hello all, As satoshiLite told once, I'm sorry to spoil the party, but I need to reign in the excitement a bit...
I know a lof of you have september or october as the end of the bullrun. I also know that things are "different" because we have now institutional money. The Truth is the most probable scenario is actually History to get repeated (again). And I think it's arriving sooner than we are expecting.
My stake? We may reach something between 70K-100K and start the bear party in 2-8 weeks from now.
Let's go directly with the confluences:
1) 🔝Monthly RSI: 96 has been a magic number announcing the end of the bull run. We are getting extremely close (92.04). Note: Not the one in this graph, you need to go to the monthly candles. Btw, look that monthly candles. Does it seem like a nice opportunity to buy?
2) ⏳NUPL: We are at 72, the magic number here has been 75. After reaching 75 (we touch it the 21st Feb) only a couple of weeks were enough for last bullruns to come to an end. You can check it here: lookintobitcoin webpage -> relative-unrealized-profit--loss (Sorry, I'm not able to add links)
3) 🎯Pi Cycle top: This has been an extremely effective technique to find out the peak. And guess what? We are about to reach it: lookintobitcoin page -> charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/
4) ⚡Stock to flow: Check digitalik page -> /btc. "We have still some margin", you can think, "we are still under the stock to flow plot". I have bad news for you, for each end of bullrun, the price is getting close to the stock flow. Following the same tendency we would not even cross it this time. 70-90K are possible definitive ATH of this bullrun. "Ok but look at the color, we are still orange": Yes, that also has a tendency, ath are each time happening before: The ATH are getting further from the halving for each cycle!
5) 🤑Stimulus: People getting their stimulus in the States righ now: The perfect timing to let "silly money" pump btc to 70-90K. Would you resist to all that tasty plancton if you werw a whale? 🐋
6) 😈Scammers / newspapers / TV / famous guys / Youtuve videos: I don't know if you're getting the same feeling.... but for me, this smells exactly like december 2017.
- Remember that the end of the bullrun is not an "obvious terrible day" is just a stealthy second most optimistic day of the bullrun... and then it comes the third... the forth... and then you keep expecting to recover your losses month by month until btc drops to 3000usd, when you decide that BTC is dead and sell to smart money :) - Even if I was still bullish, or waiting for October, I would be selling some of my assets. 1% each day could save my ass if I'm wrong while keep a lot of benefits happening ;) - We may have an alt season, there are a ton of interesting and safer projects than the ICOs we got back in 2017. May bitcoin stay around 70-90k for a long time, we would be able to have a happy alt season for one month or more! I'm particularly bullish on Pancake (I can't understand how people is able to still use eth-based exchanges after using pancake 🤔?), KSM, DOT, ADA and some risky (low market cap) projects like Pancakebunny or hydrachain that could potentially get a x20. - Remember to control your fear and your FOMO: Panic selling & buying the euphoria are bad ideas 99% of the time.
📝Don't take this as financial advice, I'm just pointing out some signals about some metrics that I consider relevant. If the cycle gets broken and BTC gets to 1M after you sell it, not my fault 😏, if you feel like you have learned something, you earn some BTCs and you want to buy me a beer, i'm ok with that tho 💃 📝DYOR and try to enjoy this bullrun while it lasts!
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So in the end I wasn't right, the price did not even hit 70K! Two scenarios now: - A) Bullrun is over, 2022-2023 we will have a nice oportunity of rebuy - B) Bullrun is not over, this is a correction, we will reach the peak in the following months and bear market will start somewhere in Q12022
In both cases, remember to do DCA all along the bear market if you feel confident about the long term of BTC!
Great post! Very informative and thanks for the links. What is lowest you think it will drop down to this time? 10k or less, 10k-20k, or some range above? Also, what % do you think it will correct to?
I have no idea about the price. Last time was from 20k to 3k (/5) Before of that 1200 to 150 (/7) I expect it to keep getting reduced so maybe a /4 or /3?
For example:
(if we get to -> we may drop to)
100k -> 25-30K
80K -> 22-28K
60k -> 20-26K
But again this is just comparing with past cycles, the probability of history getting repeated is big but a bit far from 100%!