I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. to learn more about how I use the indicators below and to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My recent led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My closely mirrored my price and time targets | before the end of 2018.
/ position: “Isn’t much room left for continued sideways action. Consolidation starts with a wide range and a lot of volatility . Big trends tend to start following a very tight range and lowvolume / volatility / Bollinger Band super squeeze.” / Short BTC from $6,354 | Short USDT:USD from 0.968 with order set at 0.97 to cover. Patterns: Symmetrical Triangle Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,360 | R: $6,376 - $6,383 BTCUSDSHORTS: Daily dragonfly tells me that shorts should start increasing within the next 24 - 48 hours Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% Short term trend (3 day MA): Price closed > 3 MA | Watching for resistance from 9 MA and 34 MA Medium term trend (8 day MA): Angling up at $6,400 Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Angling down with price currently testing it Overall trend: Long term trend is firmly bearish. Weekly candle closed below 3 MA which is below 9 MA which is below 34 MA. That is a fully bearish setup. Volume: Pitiful FIB’s: Using Oct 15th candle) 0.382 = $6,559 | 0.5 = $6,483 | 0.618 = $6,405 | 0.786 = $6,280 Candlestick analysis: Rally at the end of the day closed a bullish wick / dragonfly doji Ichimoku Cloud: Price fell out of 4h cloud yesterday. Now it is right back inside of it. TD’ Sequential: Daily r5 | W r1 Visible Range: Looking back to last November the high volume node is 2X all other nodes and sits at $6,154 - $6,789. Price action: 24h: +0.34% | 2w: +1.73% | 1m: +3.6% Bollinger Bands: Currently finding resistance from daily MA Trendline: Phase 2 of hyperwave at $6,360 Daily Trend: chop Fractals: Up: $6,564 | Down: $6,207 RSI: Overbought on 30 minute. Watching for bear div Stochastic: Daily attempting to cross bullish. Weekly buy.
Summary: The weekly candle closing below the 3 MA is very important to me. That puts the weekly chart back into a fully bearish posture. It is strongly preferable to start your analysis with higher TF’s. I start with the weekly and zoom in from there.
The daily turned fully bearish a couple days ago triggering a full entry. Now that the higher TF is in agreeance I feel much more confident in my position.
I have been paying close attention to the 30 minute chart for intraday price movements. The price briefly broke out of the down trend that I drew in yesterday’s post. Then it found resistance from horizontals. The we sold off to $6,270 before creating a double bottom.
Now it is trying to from a bull flag and / or a Bulkowski Big W. However I am not falling for that myself. Instead I am paying close attention to the overbought RSI to see if we will get a divergence.
By this time tomorrow I expect to create a new low below the $6,270 low from today. The weekly buy signal is a bit concerning and is the strongest indication that I see showing a bullish continuation over the next week.
I agree with your call. One thing I also see from my own indicators is that we have been in a massive ascending wedge momentum-wise since August. That's what these "higher lows!" bulls have been screaming about this whole time. Yes higher lows have been forming but if you look at the momentum it is saying ascending wedge (which of course ALSO makes higher lows) but eventually that breaks.
Secondly, I look at the massive short squeeze we started since end of Oct, shorts are less than 50% what they were then...and since you are tradingview pro you might want to construct a BTCLONGS/SHORTS custom chart (btclongs divided by btcshorts), if you look at the daily chart, draw a lower trend line using the Sept '17, April '18, June '18 points and you see that was broken August 4 and right now it seems like a retest of the break of the LOWER trend line. This could be the moment when bears come in with a vengeance. Of course, bear positioning DOES get extremely low at the beginning of a bull cycle, and we MAY be at that point like all the bulls on here are trying to convince us of, but I have a sneaking suspicion, given all the other indicators (ESPECIALLY 6 month price MA < 12 month price MA), that this is a massive short squeeze before a massive drop.
Market insists on making the greatest numbers of losers and right now based on extreme bull positions, it looks like the majority bulls are about to get slaughtered OR the majority bulls are about to make a whole lot of money. Hmmm I wonder which it plays out to be...let's keep watching and thanks for the post!
@CryptoTaoist, Great info, thanks for sharing! I prefer to analyze longs / shorts by comparing the BTCUSDSHORTS' chart on Trading View to the funding rates on Bitmex. That combination is currently very bearish with shorts at lows / support (like you indicated) and longs are currently paying > 4X the average funding rate on BItmex. Longs are way over leveraged and primed for a squeeze. If they start covering en masse then that could be what leads to $6,000 breaking down.
CryptoTaoist
⋅
@Sawcruhteez, Great point. One other point re: Bitmex...check out the 2 week chart volume on the XBTUSD. This is telling the entire story to me. I mean nothing is telling the story of BTC as clearly as the 2 week volume chart on Bitmex XBTUSD...
Starting from the 2 week bar on Oct 9 '2017, it explains very clearly WHY $6000 has been strong support (last high volume breakout close on the 2 week), then the high volume bearish rejection of 10K on the 2 week bar from Feb 26 2018, and then the complete seesaw battle we have been in since the equal bars on July 16 2018 and July 30 2016 and the falling volumes and volatility since then.
However, as you can clearly tell THIS current 2 week bar set to close at the end of this week will be the first bar since July of this year whose volume will be definitely higher than the last 2 week bar (almost higher volume already and we still have 6 days to go). If this 2 week bar closes bearish (< $6427.5) we are almost certainly headed for much lower targets.
CryptoTaoist
⋅
@Sawcruhteez, Oh and fresh news...check out the 5 day chart on USDT/USD...clearly tether has lost its peg. Finex BTCUSD premium blowing out again right now and decoupling from broader market again... trouble in paradise!
otohns1722
⋅
Looks like a head and shoulders forming on 4h. Thanks great post!!
dinopiccinin
⋅
@otohns1722, Agreed but I think it'll fail like h&s patterns often do.
Sawcruhteez
⋅
@dinopiccinin, Saying that you think a pattern will fail is more than okay. However saying that 'h&s patterns often fail' is ridiculous. According to Thomas Bulkowski H&S is the single most reliable pattern out of the 21 most common.
"Important Results for Head-and-Shoulders Tops
Overall performance rank (1 is best): 1 out of 21
Break even failure rate: 4%
Average decline: 22%"
Secondly, I look at the massive short squeeze we started since end of Oct, shorts are less than 50% what they were then...and since you are tradingview pro you might want to construct a BTCLONGS/SHORTS custom chart (btclongs divided by btcshorts), if you look at the daily chart, draw a lower trend line using the Sept '17, April '18, June '18 points and you see that was broken August 4 and right now it seems like a retest of the break of the LOWER trend line. This could be the moment when bears come in with a vengeance. Of course, bear positioning DOES get extremely low at the beginning of a bull cycle, and we MAY be at that point like all the bulls on here are trying to convince us of, but I have a sneaking suspicion, given all the other indicators (ESPECIALLY 6 month price MA < 12 month price MA), that this is a massive short squeeze before a massive drop.
Market insists on making the greatest numbers of losers and right now based on extreme bull positions, it looks like the majority bulls are about to get slaughtered OR the majority bulls are about to make a whole lot of money. Hmmm I wonder which it plays out to be...let's keep watching and thanks for the post!