Bitcoin and the crypto market have really been hit hard. Who knows how long this will last? We can get a good clue by looking at the shorter cycles. Please check my previous ideas on BTC cycles. I said in my previous idea that the 30-day half cycle (bearish portion) ends June 5. Yet, the price has gone lower. As I also said, the bottom or high points don't always occur at the same time of an individual cycle. This is because there are many other cycles going on as well.
This is a view of the 30 day half cycles (60 day whole cycle) with a shorter cycle view as well. If my calculations for the shorter cycle are correct, then we are very likely at or near the bottom in the crypto market for now.
It is true that BTC has fallen below an important rising trendline. That is a negative indicator, and good to keep in mind, but should not be the only factor here. Remember that whenever you hit a market bottom, it occurs after breaking down through some type of rising trendline.
So, I expect we should see some growth in the crypto market until around the first or second week of July.
Keep in mind that on the very long term time frame, we are in a correction phase of the crypto market still. That isn't to say that we won't have some shorter term growth though.
And if we look at the entire history of Bitcoin, we are still in a strong growth trend from that perspective.
This is not advice to buy or to sell. You should do your own research and make your own investment decisions.
If you like the idea, please click like! Please feel free to give any comments.
Please see my previous idea at;
Comment
⋅
As I said in my previous idea update. I suspect we should find the short term bottom between June 12-15. It is hard to pinpoint exactly what day ahead of time. It is up to you if you want to try actually buying on the low. And at the rate it has been falling, it potentially can fall a lot by June 15. I think there is a moderate level of risk for buying crypto now due to the longer-term downtrend. But if you were going to buy, it is much better to buy at these possible low points than when it seems to be performing well.
Comment
⋅
I am going to venture a guess based on the short term cycles that I see. We hit the next shorter term red line on June 21. So, I am going to look for a test of the the trendline (Around $7300) as resistance by June 21. Possibly testing the downward trendline by the first week of July - which is around $8400. These cycles cannot tell me for certain what the price will go to, so it is a guess BASED on the cycles. Not advice to buy or sell. Let's see how this turns out.
im very interested in your dow, nasdaq ideas i am an amateur trader but i am very certain there will be a huge correction in the nyse markets. also, i am self taught and all my experience is with crypto, and there are many other factors at play then TA with crypto and btc, such as the majority of coins are held by extremely wealthy coders who will have no problem leverage shorting her all the way down to 0, and there is nothing anyone can do about that even "institutional" investors will not be able to save the market if the crypto "1 percent" decide to dump on everyone, which i believe is happening as we speak
twalsh389
⋅
@twalsh389, until all of these peoples coins are gone, there will be no chance for a rebound or healthy growth, and we are a LONG ways from them running out of their absurd stockpile of coins
cedarfox
⋅
@twalsh389, Thanks for your comments. I do think that the crypto market is in a longer term downtrend but, I am looking at shorter term rebounds with this idea. Naturally, when we are in a longer term downtrend, there is a higher level of risk for buying on the low of the rebounds. If you want to play it safer, you can look at the longer term up and down trends.
twalsh389
⋅
@cedarfox, okay, understood. i too look for the bounces in alts after a big btc drop and some sideways movement, but it seems even those oppurtunities might be lost, im hoping not and i will be following you to see if your temporary bottom coincides with mine and the consensus of other traders i follow. thank you very much for your time and education i look forward to seeing your future work
cedarfox
⋅
@twalsh389, Thanks! Yes, I agree with you. It's good if I put reminders that there are risks to trading these markets. Yes, I do think you are right about the stock market too. But I think the stock market may still have some upside until sometime between Oct-Jan. On my study of cycles, January looks to likely be a bad month in the stock market.
Fovillain
⋅
@twalsh389, I have suspected something similar after vitalik came out blasting the "lambo boys" during the first phase climbdown from the ath. I think there is some resistance in the crypto tech community to the speculation while at the same time benefitting a lot!