The Pi Cycle Top Indicator as created by Philip Swift has caught the eye of many traders and analysts (Including myself) as a possible tool to "call the top" of this market cycle.
It is giving the "Signal" now, so should I automatically sell as it has always been a good idea previously to sell when the signal is given??
I would say that we can disregard the Pi Cycle Top signal in this case for the following reasons.
All other Momentum Oscillators and Volatility metrics were giving obvious highs at each of the previous signals.
This time the setup is distinctly different on both volatility metrics and on momentum oscillators, with most volatility metrics being close to their lows, and momentum oscillators hovering just slightly above their midlines.
Personally (this is not financial advice, I am not a financial advisor) I will be completely disregarding the Pi Cycle Top signal as a consequence.
I am interpreting the momentum oscillators coming back down near their midlines as a "Bullish reset" giving them room to run to the upside and volatility dropping near its lows as giving room to expand.
I will remain bullish on Bitcoin until I see momentum oscillators breaking below their midlines or an obvious higher Timeframe reversal.
Excellent point! I just want to thank you for making so many of your indicators open source. As someone learning to create my own indicators (for fun) I think that there is no better way to learn than to have a real world example to "break" and see what happens. In an attempt to learn I changed several variables on the pi cycle and was able to get the indicator signal the exact top on each BTC price top (backtesting). Once I did that the new percent is all the way up at 96. It is very cool and helpful to have real world code to play with. thanks again! --Satoshi Prime
Thanks for the update caretaker, this was shaping up to be a great indicator, I appreciate your time invested into all of your products and will hopefully be purchasing at least one in the near future, keep up the good work!
LitzoBeach
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Was seeing something similar on a smaller scale. Your thoughts and ideas give me confidence. Thanks for all your amazing work man
Bose03
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You’re the man Caretaker!
KaynakiKaymaki
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in hindsight it was a pretty good top indicator though
longshot1710
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Unfortunately this did not age too well. I took the same view as you did while some of my colleagues used this signal and sold the last "macro" top. We have had some debate and will more than likely use this to hopefully sell the top again. 1M BTC low leveraged shorts shall be opened. I am interested to hear this in your analyses on youtube in the upcoming months, I do hope it is included (or possibly it should be left for the masses to decipher?).
Simon_says
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Hello and thank you for your analysis, I still think you should visualize this plot on weekly timeframe and not on a daily chart.
I may be wrong but in my opinion we are approaching first bubble of the RSI on monthly chart and we are approaching a fall in RSI on lower timeframes.