Are We Seeing A Fresh Rally or Stop Hunt?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
The daily close above $10K changes our near-term perspective on Bitcoin which begs the question, "Does this mean Bitcoin is on a fresh rally to its all-time high?"

Well, the technicals beg to differ. We can see that multiple momentum indicators ( Stoch , RSI , Willy) in the 4-hour chart have lingered in the oversold region for far too long now and the current shallow pullback could only ease the tension by a bit but certainly not enough to replenish the much needed momentum for a huge sustainable upside rally. In other words, this surge we are seeing could be nothing more than a stop hunt.

Looking at the chart, we have a pivotal support range from $10200 to $10400 that underpins the market so as long as price stays above this range, we would expect Bitcoin to step up and challenge the strong resistance range between $11200 and $11600 which I think is likely where the market flips. On the downside, if the current pullback breaks below the pivotal support range, then be prepared for a huge downhill rally instead because as you can see from the chart, we have so much room to the downside.

The bottom line is this; as long as the pivotal support holds, we would expect Bitcoin to continue rising over the next day or so, probably go head-on with the hammer and then crash like hell. I have more of this covered in the premium forecasts that I share in my private trading channel so if you are interested, send me a DM or check my profile and visit my site.

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Comment: The pivotal support between $10200 - $10466 no longer plays a crucial part in determining the direction of the trend. This means price could dip below $10200 and still make a comeback and the comeback could take place in one of the 3 potential bounce levels in the updated chart.

Updated Chart:
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