BTC has been trading sideways for almost a month now. Since the major rejection of a breakout on February 24th, we have created a belly in price movement. The range has consisted of BTC to a low of $3761 to a high of $4046 in this range. Major movements generally drop a lot more violently which is why I am erring on the side of longing rather than shorting this. My two reasons are as follows:
1. Possible Wyckoff Re-accumulation Phase rather than a Distribution Phase.
a. Volume profile and momentum oscillators agree with this.
2. Bitcoin’s volatility index (according to BitMex) has dropped 80% since February 24th.
What this is telling me is that a big move is incoming but to try to trade in this range is almost guessing. That being said, the reason why longing makes more sense is because there was no distribution phase. Instead of a price consolidation at the top when we reached $4282, the price dropped 10% in the matter of hours. Generally, there is a chance for liquidity pools to be created. Some characteristics would be long wicks that indicate signs of uncertainty from bulls and bears leading to a correction. BTC Longs and BTC Shorts are pretty much neck and neck at 22k longs and 20k shorts so I don’t expect to see any long or short squeezes. We might continue to range so I am going to stay out of trading BTC until we see some more volatility.
1. Possible Wyckoff Re-accumulation Phase rather than a Distribution Phase.
a. Volume profile and momentum oscillators agree with this.
2. Bitcoin’s volatility index (according to BitMex) has dropped 80% since February 24th.
What this is telling me is that a big move is incoming but to try to trade in this range is almost guessing. That being said, the reason why longing makes more sense is because there was no distribution phase. Instead of a price consolidation at the top when we reached $4282, the price dropped 10% in the matter of hours. Generally, there is a chance for liquidity pools to be created. Some characteristics would be long wicks that indicate signs of uncertainty from bulls and bears leading to a correction. BTC Longs and BTC Shorts are pretty much neck and neck at 22k longs and 20k shorts so I don’t expect to see any long or short squeezes. We might continue to range so I am going to stay out of trading BTC until we see some more volatility.