BTC has been trading sideways for almost a month now. Since the major rejection of a breakout on February 24th, we have created a belly in price movement. The range has consisted of BTC to a low of $3761 to a high of $4046 in this range. Major movements generally drop a lot more violently which is why I am erring on the side of longing rather than shorting this. My two reasons are as follows: 1. Possible Wyckoff Re-accumulation Phase rather than a Distribution Phase. a. Volume profile and momentum oscillators agree with this. 2. Bitcoin’s volatility index (according to BitMex) has dropped 80% since February 24th. What this is telling me is that a big move is incoming but to try to trade in this range is almost guessing. That being said, the reason why longing makes more sense is because there was no distribution phase. Instead of a price consolidation at the top when we reached $4282, the price dropped 10% in the matter of hours. Generally, there is a chance for liquidity pools to be created. Some characteristics would be long wicks that indicate signs of uncertainty from bulls and bears leading to a correction. BTC Longs and BTC Shorts are pretty much neck and neck at 22k longs and 20k shorts so I don’t expect to see any long or short squeezes. We might continue to range so I am going to stay out of trading BTC until we see some more volatility.
While you guys are trying to figure out how to "trade" bitcoin the rest of us are just buying it outright on the cheap and moving it off of the exchanges where it is safe.
aboveandphom
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@Kwa, it is possible to exchange buy and also short retracements. In fact, it’s how you minimize risk especially if you think the sentiment is bullish.
Also, if you believe this is bottom and we are going to the moon, you don’t need to be looking at technicals on tradingview :P
BitcoinBearSlayer
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@aboveandphom, the only thing I am interested in is putting as many Bitcoins in my stack as possible. If the fiat price continues to be pushed lower it just means more fiat will leave the bank and more Bitcoins will leave the exchange.
That would be the more interesting figures to watch.
How much cash comes into to the exchange to buy bitcoins vs how many new bitcoins come into the exchange to be sold.
and
How many Bitcoins are leaving the exchange after they are bought vs how much cash is leaving after they are sold.
If large quantities of coins are leaving but smaller quantities are coming in then what will there be left to trade when they are all gone?
The Bitcoin Exchanges are like $1.00 vending machines stuffed with $20 dollar bills as the product. How long do you think it will take for the cash box to get filled with $1 dollar bills and the vending machine product to be sold out?
aboveandphom
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@Kwa, Sure, I agree collect Bitcoin but you’re making way too many assumptions here. Let’s just operate within the realm of the hypothetical of your model that Bitcoin would 20x from here so.. 80k BTC. Even if that was the case you have to factor in how long it would take. It could be minutes, hours, days, or it could be years. Your liquid assets would be terrible since most places don’t accept Bitcoin yet.
And what if it goes down? Will you be able to stomach double digit percent losses if it does? People were “buying the dip” at 10k,8k,6k let’s not forget.
While that happens people like us that trade will do exactly what you’re doing, collecting Bitcoin but also playing the market by maximizing our investments and limiting our risk exposure. It doesn’t matter if a company or portfolio has trillions of dollars in assets if cash flow is non existent. Cash is king...but only if it’s liquid and that’s important.
And the irony is that you used fiat in your very own example. A BTC maximalist such as yourself should be speaking about the vending machine analogy in satoshis not fiat if that’s what you’re really about.
aboveandphom
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@Kwa, Sure, I agree collect Bitcoin but you’re making way too many assumptions here. Let’s just operate within the realm of the hypothetical of your model that Bitcoin would 20x from here so.. 80k BTC. Even if that was the case you have to factor in how long it would take. It could be minutes, hours, days, or it could be years. Your liquid assets would be terrible since most places don’t accept Bitcoin yet.
And what if it goes down? Will you be able to stomach double digit percent losses if it does? People were “buying the dip” at 10k,8k,6k let’s not forget.
While that happens people like us that trade will do exactly what you’re doing, collecting Bitcoin but also playing the market by maximizing our investments and limiting our risk exposure. It doesn’t matter if a company or portfolio has trillions of dollars in assets if cash flow is non existent. Cash is king...but only if it’s liquid and that’s important.
And the irony is that you used fiat in your very own example. A BTC maximalist such as yourself should be speaking about the vending machine analogy in satoshis not fiat if that’s what you’re really about.