BTC failed to pierce through the resistance at 8700USD and turns it into support; but got rejected instead -- showing persistent market weakness. Previous attempt at a short-term bullish trade did not execute.
Now, BTC have broken through support at 8031USD, with clear sign that it has turned into resistance. Coupled with the strong bearish signs from my PRISM and FUSIONGAPS oscillators, and low volatility from my RCVI (relative volatility index) this signals that BTC will very likely plunge down to the 162% level at 7200-7300USD as suggested on my Sep 25 chart.
The bearish Ichimoku cloud is thickening ahead, and my Cyber Ensemble {Cy.ESM} buy/sell signaling algorithm (which seems to work well historically for BTC) is signaling sell as well.
Of course, sensible stop-limit for shorts need to be set. Base on my Volatility Stop Limit Selector (derived from my RCVI/RCDI indicator), possible shorting level at 7812 USD, and stop-limit of shorts trade at 8211 USD (depending on risk-reward preference).
Side note: The bottom blue line was meant to be the shortened version of the yellow line drawn here, but was accidentally shifted at some point.
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a more zoomed-in view:
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How this candle closes will decide the next move. Will it close under or above the red line?
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Bearish candle forming with just 30mins left before close:
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Change of trend ... BTC now back above red-trend line with strength! CYBER ENSEMBLE "Buy"-signal triggered.
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BTC just dumped:
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Volatility Stop Limit Selector {VSLS} levels:
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A sell signal from my Cyber Ensemble script was also triggered back on the 22nd too.
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BTC price have now pierced through all the immediate resistance levels like they are nothing! Demonstrating that there is still a lot of hidden strength in the market.
no one seems to realise... but we are on the tipping point of total crypto-pocalypse... if BTC doesn't find support and/or Eth doesn't step in and start leading the bull charge we may lose this trendline... next stop 128 Billion.
ccccp
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does that mean up?
cybernetwork
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@ccccp, Speculatively, I am kinda cautiously expecting for a sharp drop to 7200 USD-ish, followed by an almost immediate high volume buy-in around that level; quickly shooting BTC back up and through 8700 USD, then followed by a shift into a bull-market trend again.
ccccp
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@cybernetwork, That would get us out of the woods with the breach of the trendline in the midterm... But it would also stick the trendline with a big nasty "capitulation wick"
cybernetwork
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@ccccp, I think that the slop have been reducing after every bull-market cycle/phase.
In this perspective, it perhaps wouldn't be too detrimental for BTC to come down to say 7300 USD, then wicking up with sufficiently strength and ferocity.
The recent parabolic pump, have been too fast and too much, in my view, and the correction so far, will only be positive for BTC price into the far longer term.
But of course, the bearish scenario needs to be considered as well, and I do agree that if BTC dumps to 7300 USD and fails to immediately demonstrate strength of the market (waiting to buy in) at that level, then it is very likely to dump all the way down to 6650 USD, or even possibly even 5.5k USD. :\
cybernetwork
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@cybernetwork, typo: "slop" == slope or gradient of the ascend.
Also to add, fundamentally, with the halving looming ahead, provides a bullish backdrop to it all.
cybernetwork
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@ccccp, Looks like you are right.
BTC now back above the red-trend line! And Buy signal from my CYBER ENSEMBLE signaling script has been triggered!
cybernetwork
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@cybernetwork, With an obvious bullish "W" pattern to boot!
cybernetwork
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Stop-loss selected using my Volatility Stop Limit Selector {VSLS} script and set, in case this is a fake out.
ccccp
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@cybernetwork, Volatility Stop Limit Selector? Awesome did you write the script?