BTC has opened Monday lower as a result of the continuous selling pressure on the stock markets. This is the natural psychological against the threat of rising COVID cases and the inability of the economy to withstand a potential new lockdown.
The price is therefore currently about to test again the Higher Low trend-line of the 5 month Channel Up. A few days back I published an analysis on the importance of the need to break the 1D MA50 in order to support a rally, which Bitcoin has failed to do (so practically we had a rejection on the 1D MA50). If we look back at the two time periods Bitcoin we investigated on that study (April 18, July 08) we will see that after they got rejected the too pulled back and hit (marginally crossed) the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level under the 1D MA20 (black trend-line on the chart) before finding a Support there and started to rise again.
Right now the price is on the 0.618. Will this create a Support Zone and rebound gradually? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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I also favor the idea of neutral zone, preparing for a bull market. Daily RSI broke out trendline and in a pullback to "support". Weekly RSI reading similar to February 2016. Monthly RSI also broke down trend line. My 2c.
Chinks
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@idz, Turn on your TV, watch the news with regards to the current economical crisis and uncertanty, Are we really going to bull ?
UnknownUnicorn100937
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@Chinks, News is not a reliable indicator for trading. Ed Seykota, for instance, even uses mainstream magazine covers as trend reversal signals. Unfortunately (or not) that's the nature of markets, because markets are made of people, and people make decisions based on their emotions, rather than unbiased fundamental analysis (see the concept of "reflexivity" coined by Soros). And even if a thorough fundamental analysis is made, there are too many factors to consider, which makes it almost impossible to predict anything. So much more emphasis should be given the price action, such as higher-highs and higher-lows (and vice-versa), in different time frames. That said, if we are really going to bull, I don't really know. Decisions have to be made in an environment of uncertainty, considering probabilities, potential risks and rewards, trading in the direction of the main trend or one's trading plan, etc. It's important not trade with high leverage, or betting one's house or farm and a considerable part of one's net worth in the markets. Good luck.
TradingShot
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@Chinks, Trading based on the news isn't always productive. Those are not opportunities. By the time you read something on the WallStreet Journal, it is probably already too late.
TradingShot
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@idz, Well noted idz. We shouldn't ignore the monthly RSI.
Nueel_classic
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Good idea.
Check out my wave analysis on the same pair.
TradingShot
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@Nueel_classic, I wouldn't trust the 4H time-frame at the moment. But keep up the good work!
trixx1337
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@Nueel_classic yep and this is probably the A of the correction we are in.
my Analysis