This is a really simple Bitcoin study on which I calculate the remaining days of the current Bull Cycle we are in based on the Top, Bottom and Halving of each Cycle. These parameters are effectively used to distinguish the Bull from the Bear Cycles. Tops are obviously where the Bull phase ends and Bear starts, while the Bottoms are where the Bear phase ends and the Bull starts.
** The 51%-49% Ratio and the important of the Halvings ** The focus of this study is the Bull Cycle. As you see on the chart there is a striking similarity on each Cycle. The phase from the Bottom to the Halving is 51% of the whole Bull Cycle while the rest (Halving to Top) consists the 49%. Practically we can claim that the Halving seems to be the middle of each Bull Cycle.
** So where are we now? ** Based on the above ratio and with the 3rd Halving scheduled on May 12th, 2020, we can calculate that the first phase (51%) of the current Bull Cycle will last around 520 days (Bottom made on December 15th 2018). The 49% which based on the previous two cycles has been the second phase should therefore last around 505 days, placing the Top of the current Bull Cycle in early October 2021! This means that there are around 600 days of Bull Cycle left!!
Of course there are and will be several other parameters that can influence the cycle (we saw that on the April-June 2019 parabolic explosion) but this is a good (and so far very accurate) pattern that long term Bitcoin investors can follow. It certainly answers the question "is it too late to buy?" though!
Do you agree with this estimate of have another pattern in mind? Let me know in the comments section!
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BONUS MATERIAL a shorter term perspective:
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The Golden 51%-49% Ratio is back! A combo analysis on the Logarithmic Growth Channel:
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Here is a new relevant update to the Golden 51%-49% Ratio:
This is bloody awesome! Something different to add to the data set! Thanks mate.
TradingShot
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@QuinTRON2K, You're welcome! Every little bit of (long term) data counts!
mackbrown
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@TradingShot, Please stop being a clown and encouraging people to BUY THE DIP while equity & financial markets crash...
If you think that money is going to flood into CRYPTOS because of this , then you need to prep for another career.
~~~
I'm no genius, but I learned (THE HARD WAY) one lesson in my life... I KNEW the housing bubble was going to crash back in 2006-2007... So what did I do?... I went LONG the sectors that I thought would profit... I GOT CRUSHED and lost over a million dollars in capital because I didn't understand the LARGER dynamic of DE-LEVERAGING... NOT because I was a bad trader, but because I didn't understand the FLIGHT TO SAFETY aspect brought about by people who have a lot more AGGREGATE invested in this than you...
I've recovered... I'm not homeless ~ but I almost was because I thought I knew what I was doing and was a CHART EXPERT... Don't make the same mistake with CRYPTOS...
TinTinTaFa
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@mackbrown, What makes you think the market crash will happen this year. We've been saying this since the last 5 years of mindless QE, inversed yields and derivatives complexity. Looks like MMT won't be stopping anytime soon and that we will not have peaked before 2022. Monetary policy makers will do - and are doing - everything in there power to prevent this system from failing and in my opinion they'll keep succeeding at this for atleast two more years. The virus won't have such a significant impact, it's just another b"buy-the-dip-scenario" in this mindless bullrun.
TradingShot
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@MOMERENCY, You don't know that traders have accurately predicted the last 57 out of 2 market crashes since 2000?
mackbrown
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@MOMERENCY, That's your opinion... I have mine... Others have different ones.
@assitaca50, Oh yeah? That comment was dated FEB 25, 2020... & now? this is the only time I've even made a comment & posted on this thread since then... & you're calling me a retard...
Let's REWIND... I was calling, then, for a move to a "3" handle & possibly a "1" handle... The first scenario did... IN FACT... Happen... BTC was $9700 a day before, and dropped to $3850 within a few weeks of the day of that comment...
I made no more calls since that day (on threads)... I didn't get on a comment board and wag a finger at anyone (in March), who owned at $9700 and, perhaps, panic sold at $3800 (which was, in fact, a first print of my diagnosis)...
Neither did you bother to notice any of the OTHER comments I made... Which were... I OWN 50 BTC (in cold wallets ~ off exchanges)... Did then, do now... My comments were more about a TRADING VEHICLE, & as of FEB 25, 2020, I felt it was a poor trading vehicle...
So ~ thank you for your input, as always... These are the reasons I don't post on these threads anymore...
Good Day!
andriesjackson
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@mackbrown, Wow 50 BTC ----- 1 would change my life for ever lol
TradingShot
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@mackbrown, The mistake you continue to make since 2006 is assuming that other people behave like you. You are rude and have a very negative attitude towards investing. This is a public platform where traders from around the world SHARE. If you don't like this function then you are obviously in the wrong place. Any objections take it with the TradingView team.