This is a long way from forming completely, and might not happen. I do think BTC is still in an uptrend. But yesterday's price action does suggest the possibility of more downside action before upside momentum retakes control.
The consolidation area (marked with an ellipse) before the last lowest low remains unconfirmed as support. Normally one would expect a backtest of this area.
Possible H&S pattern forming that could suggest a retest of this area at the bottom of the macro channel, and a possible local channel.
The main reasons I think BTC continues to be in an uptrend:
1) We just witnessed a relief rally, not a retracement rally, in my view. I would expect a retracement rally from a cycle peak to reach the 0.702. The 0.702 wasn't reached. Strong rejection from that level could suggest a trend reversal.
2) Alts are still following BTC. Decoupling from BTC should have already happened, if the top is already in.
To be sure, it wouldn't be entirely bankable that the 50k level would hold. At the macro level, I see BTC printing Wave 5 down. I expected lower than 47k. But if lower than 47 was coming, I would have expected continuance from 25 April. Instead, we did see a seven-wave crash structure play out. So I wouldn't expect a lower low now.
But this is something for all traders to judge for themselves.
Feel free to comment.
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04 May 2021 11:46:20: We have to bet, and I'm calling this as invalid. We'll see together how it goes.
Order cancelled
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Not a determination I can make for others, but I don't see a breakdown to 50.
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04 May 2021 16:24:27: Goddamn. To my eye BTC just did a 7-wave crash structure.
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04 May 2021 19:39:02: I didn't get that count right as I was trying to do it as the move was unfolding. I still may be wrong, as doing the count is not easy, and this is a 5-minute chart. There's a certain degree of subjective pattern recognition involved, but I do think the base is in for the time being. As you can see, there are sevens all over the place. This crash structure is very fractal in nature and appears across all charts and assets and markets.
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04 May 2021 19:45:50: Important now to watch 55,450 for rejection. We might see higher, up to 56,150. These levels a projected according to the Fibonacci sequence. If a H&S pattern forms, it would suggest we're not done with the April correction yet, and I'd be looking at the whole as an ABC correction to 46 or maybe lower. However, it's not impossible that BTC hauls right out of there and pushes up strongly from where it is to make a new ATH.
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(The green line below is the weekly 21 EMA, which is considered strong support in many cases)