I bought my first bitcoin in December 2017 and more at the post xmas January sale - now my conviction is being tested. Anyone who bought bitcoin more than 3 months ago is holding a profit. Those who have a lot of fat on their trade are not nervous about the current correction. What I do know about markets is that you have to have a plan in advance for how to respond to a price move. My plan is to do nothing until I see a weekly candle complete with a higher high and a higher low than the previous week's candle - that will be a good sign that the bulls have regained control of a week. I don't know when that will happen but when it does I will place some buy orders. Until then I do nothing - unless I quit my day job and become a trader.
Last year 32 out of 52 weeks had higher highs and higher lows - bitcoin had a very good run. This hasn't happened once yet in 2018. When it does it could maybe be the starting gun for bitcoins next rally. The next rally will not be like the last. The next rally will be less like a rocket ship as there will be people who will sell their holdings when the price gets back to the price they paid. Fundamentally nothing has changed but the negative press is increasing and people who haven't researched beyond the price will have no conviction to hold bitcoin . Unfortunately most people buying bitcoin are speculators and increases when prices fall. If Lightning can upgrade bitcoin and increase transactions and reduce costs it could be a game changer. Someone else could do this with their own crypto but Bitcoin has the largest market cap which should give it some power to evolve faster - but maybe not. Cryptos have been called dotcom2 and I have to agree. Most of the 1400 cryptos out there will crash and burn but how many people sold their holdings of apple , google and amazon in Y2K and later had sellers remorse. Conviction doesn't come from studying prices. Prices in 2017 got way past value and this pullback is only natural. Fundamentally cryptos are the first competition that banks have ever had that wasn't military. Banks also have the best business model on the planet. Fundamentally I see this crypto revolution as changing the world and being unstoppable that's why my conviction says buy but let the market decide when. In twenty years time you will have a good story to tell. Well bitcoin had a very good run.