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CantorTechnologies
Sep 7, 2018 1:22 AM

Quick 7-day VAR 

Bitcoin / DollarBitfinex

Description

What's up guys,

This is the trading range for the next 7 days:

low: $ 4511.259584775941
high: $ 8531.398424884057

Peace out.

-YoungShkreli
Comments
pablo36
Hi @youngshkreli
I have a question regarding this VAR.
One of the trendline I follow arrives around 4600 in 7 days.
I'm trying to determine how unlikely it is that we get there in exactly 7 days.

So how would you interpret this VaR? Means 4600 Very unlikely since it's in the extreme of the range, or quite possible?
CantorTechnologies
@pablo36, Very unlikely. ~99% unlikely.
BCryptological
Thank you, as always
CantorTechnologies
@BCryptological, One of the GOAT followers. Kudos to you, my friend.
pablo36
Nice to know, thanks.
MagicCrow
what does it mean buddy can you explain briefly
CantorTechnologies
@MagicCrow, I made a post explaining all of it before. It would have had VAR in the title. VAR = Value At Risk. It is a statistical tool that inputs volatility and standard deviation and can give you a forecast over some time interval for how extreme the price movements can be. Legally required to be used by banks at 95% or 99% confidence levels (based on sd). This is a 99% confidence interval. Thanks for the comment.
MagicCrow
@youngshkreli, thanks for the answer
BCryptological
@youngshkreli, That 200 MA is looking pretty strong at $7800, would be very surprised if we could break above that
CantorTechnologies
@BCryptological, Totally possible if we get a strong bounce from 5k. It is very strong resistance though atm.
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