While being in correction phase since December 2017, BTC has been forming grand (purple).
The minor wave (yellow) with its target at point 6 was formed between points III and IV of the major structure and is currently working.
Recently, BTC experienced a sharp drop and bounced back to it's present 8.2k
Despite the fact that the price touched line 1-4 of the minor wave (yellow), diminishing suggests that this bounce will only be short lived and the price will continue its descend to the designated level of 6k:
It is worth noting that Fibo fan indicates possible point V of the purple pattern at the same location as the planned target (point 6) of the minor wave.
This level represents the possible turning point #1 for the current market.
When BTC hit this level back on Feb 6, 2018, the tremendous spike clearly showed strong demand and drove the price from 6k area to nearly 12k.
If the history repeats itself, we'll see the similiar drastic increase and the key (II-IV) will be irrevocably broken. Apparently, this will signify the long awaited end of correction.
If the price keeps falling, it may even re-visit 2.9k demand area of Sep 15, 2017. I consider this scenario to be much less likely than the first one, but it's also possible.
In any case, significant change at key levels can definitely assist in the indication of a turning point.
Thank you for reading!
Writing Inspiration music: The Big Short soundtrack :-)
All this looks pretty good (for now), but until major downtrend line (II-IV) is not clearly broken, I would refrain from claiming this to be the long awaited end of the current correction.
Long positions also dropped in numbers as it looks like that the bulls unloaded at local highs (nothing comparable to recent shorts squeeze wipeout). Interestingly, another maximum of longs can be reached around May 19 which is just few days after the end of Consensus 2018 event:
As no strong moves have been made by any side after the recent bearish reaction, the price is just slowly drifting further South.
If it reaches 7k, it may find strong support by touching the previous downtrend line. On the other hand, the price doesn't have too much time for descending too low as the last day to file 2017 tax returns is Tuesday, April 17.
Historically, at least for the last 4 years which I had checked, it was always providing a significant bullish boost and I have no reasons to believe this year will be any different.
Please, fasten your seatbelts, we're preparing for the take-off)
"This is the first time that any coins have been moved from the cold wallets associated with Mt. Gox since February. On that occasion, the coins were transferred on February 5. The following day, the price of Bitcoin dropped to its low for the year – around $6,000." (Not sure if I can provide direct link here, but if you check Google, you'll see lot of articles dedicated to this issue).
I urge caution as the nature of this transfer is still unknown and if this is not a real sale, but a preparation for the one, then BTC can experience a big drop.
Personally, I moved 1/3 of my alts into cash to see what happens next. Not urge anyone to do anything similar of course (everyone should make decisions based on their own research) - but it makes sense at least to closely monitor the market for unusual movements until the situation is clear.
If the effect is similar to Feb 5-6, possible volatility can be pretty dangerous for both bulls and bears, especially in case of margin trading. Hopefully, this situation will not have much effect on the market, but in my opinion it is better to be safe than sorry. Good luck All!
There is no guarantee of course that the buyer will not sell them anyway later on, but so far the market didn't do anything really unexpected.
After the breakthrough of the major downtrend line (purple II-IV), BTC entered the correction phase and is forming another minor bullish wave (yellow):
As it is clearly seen on the chart, the consequent bullish spikes have been moving the price upwards since April 12:
Breaking triangle formation is being backed by solid volume increase.
The picture on H1 looks indeed pretty bearish - the next support is only at 7.8k:
Interestingly, the Upbit is still operational and the outcome of the investigation is (obviously) not yet known.
Another supposed Mt. Gox sale also seems strange.
2 weeks ago, 16k BTC and BCH didn't do much as were apparently sold via OTC deal. And now, 8.2k BTC are just sending the market to free fall? And all of the sudden, they were just thrown to the open market instead of OTC? Or dealt by OTC in order to be instantly sold by the buyer? Sounds strange to me to be honest.
Warren Buffet/Munger and Gates - their ideas on crypto are very well known and have been the part of public space for quite many years. Currently, they are all staying out of this market and thus their words contain nothing new or interesting.
But being combined, all of these are currently making bears very happy. And quite possible will make (some) bulls very happy too buying much lower right prior to Consensus.
So far, bulls are hiding somewhere lower:
(*Yes, I know that futures trades shouldn't affect the price of the asset. However, for the previous 4 months since their introduction to the market, the settlement date was always followed by a moderate up move. This is the first time it is different.)
With support at 8k is getting broken down with consequent bearish volume spikes and no sign of bull's presence, the next target is at 7.1k: