Nish19

The time is near - a slightly different BTC analysis

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hi folks,

For those who don't know the lines in my chart:
These are the Fibonacci Bollinger Bands used in the 1439 minute chart, my favorite chart-indicator combination. The FBB are calculated by taking the third SD of the VWMA-200 ( Volume Weighted Moving Average ) and multiplying it by known Fibonacci levels (23,6%, 38,2%, 50%, 61,8% and 76,4%). This indicator is not only frighteningly accurate, it is also extremely simple to use to determine strong and reliable(!) support and resistance zones. They can be used with any timeframe and chart. You can access them for free by searching the Tradingview indicator database for 'Fibonacci Bollinger Bands'.

I keep my analysis on this one short. The FBB always act as strong resistance and support, which is demonstrated by the fact that each ralley this year has failed at the first FBB level. The lines have begun to closing in at a very fast pace, and whenever that happens they become easier to break. This is necessary for BTC to pull off some bigger moves.

Atm we're hovering around the alltime point of control, the level where bitcoin has been traded with most volume throughout its existence, at exactly 6400. Around this level a gravitational field has been established that pulls BTC back whenever it strays apart (as seen today). What BTC needs is the kind of volatility that breaks the connection to 6400. When the FBB lines are done converging and start moving horizontally, the time has come to become extra careful and observe the market intensely, especially when you're in a trade.

Just today, we retested the mid-term downtrend line and found support for now. To be more precise, we found support on the VWMA-200 on the 4H chart, which acted as support before. I expect some sideways movement in a $50-100 range around 6400 for the next days, but a continuation to the downside is also not unlikely.


I'm going to update this thread with some more charts soon.
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