This part is more about market sentiment and potential threats to this market.
Nobody needs to tell you that the market sentiment sucks at the moment. I'm not talking about the relatively small group of people who actually know why they are buying bitcoin and believe in it.
I'm talking about the people who don't know what they are doing and only purchase btc because everyone else is doing it and because they think it will make them rich quickly.
Those people bought in by the thousands, maybe even hundred of thousands of people just before the blow of top and are now sitting on a lot of unrealized or already realized loss.
So a lot of people got burned and that news spreads fast among family and friends. (Maybe not as fast as the news that people have made money because losing money is not something you brag about but people aren't stupid).
Next to that you have all the negativity that comes from the news. Btc gets bombarded all the time. If it isn't an exchange that gets hacked for hundreds of millions of dollars, it's a new country that is looking to ban btc .
It just goes on and on.
No wonder that people are uncertain and scared to buy btc .
So what needs to happen to attract excisting / new buyers into the market? Well we need good news!
1. lightning network
2. countries that accept btc as legal currency
3. big companies that accept btc as payment solution
If we won't get any good news in the coming days/weeks/months it will make it so much more difficult for btc to rise again!
Next to a lack of positive news there are also two big threats to bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrency market!
1. Ban on bitcoin
It looks like more and more governments are thinking aboud banning bitcoin .
That's nothing new but if we want btc to grow REALLY, REALLY big we need global adoption and if more and more countries start banning btc , that won't happen.
Yes, bitcoin will survive on the dark web but then it will never get as big as it could be.
Tether is a coin that is pegged to the USD dollar. At least that is what the company behind tether is claiming.
However the company which makes those claims doesn't offer enough transparency for the world to verify those claims. This has caused a lot of uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market because the market cap of tether is approximately 2.5 BILLION dollars.
What if those billions of tether are actually not backed by real dollars? What if the company behind tether has printed tethers out of thin air? Well that could result in a collapse of tether and spread a world wide panick within the cryptocurrency world.
This in turn could result in a major sell off.
Lets hope tether is legit.
If you want to know more about the tether issue i suggest you read this article.
So having said this! Do i think that bitcoin could reach a new all time high this year?
I honestly don't know because there is to much uncertainty in this cryptocurrency world at the moment.
I think it's hard to believe that bitcoin will reach 20k this year IF there is nothing but negative news about it. If the market sentiment turns positive, it could very well reach those highs again.
If not, i wouldn't bet my house on it.