I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis: Took partial profit on BTC & ETH shorts and getting prepared for three potential outcomes from here
Position: Short BTC:USD from $6,353 & Short ETH:USD from $196.32
Patterns: Broke down phase 2 of they hyperwave
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,615 | S: $5,200 & $5,400
BTCUSDSHORTS: Shooting star from today is interesting. However there is still plenty of room to go before resistance
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0866%
Short term trend (3 day MA): bear
Medium term trend (8 day MA): bear
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): bear
Overall trend: Bearish and longest term MA’s are starting to roll over (128 is my favorite)
Volume: Most volume we have seen in two consecutive days since March
FIB’s: High of Feb 20th and low of Feb 6th)
1 = $5,863 | 1.272 = $4,262 | 1.4140 = $3,426 | 1.618 = $2,224
Candlestick analysis: Daily closed a dragonfly on high volume (usually a strong indication of a bounce) However the current candle quickly fell below the body, would not expect that to precede bounce.
Ichimoku Cloud: 1h shows resistance from $5,500 - $5,800 | Daily cloud is moving down quickly
TD’ Sequential: 4h hit a r9 and now it is on a g2 | Current candle is a red 9. Would love to see a perfected 9 + bull div in the RSI.
Visible Range: If price can’t support $5,200 then I expect us to fall right through $5,000 due to the gap in volume
Price action: 24h: -0.62% | 2w: -12.69% | 1m: -14.01%
Bollinger Bands: Watch for weekly to close below bottom band as confirmation of bearish momentum
Trendline: Connect top of May 5th to top of July 24th. I expect this to be the top of the down trend.
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Watch for weekly to close below down fractals. Weekly Up fractal at $6,800 should not get retestest (although I wouldn’t say the same about $6,300 due to the 2014 bear trap pointed out in yesterdays post.
RSI: Watching closely for bull div’ on daily
Stochastic: Daily and 4h buy signal should not be overlooked. However the 3d sell signal and weekly posture are more important to me.
Summary: Not much to add from yesterday’s post which summed up my thoughts for the next 1m - 1y. One thing that I did want to talk about is the craziness going on with the alts right now. Seeing Bcash, XRP’, EOS’, LTC’, ADA’ and TRX’ in the green while BTC’ and ETH’ are in the red is a huge trap!
If the two market leads are selling off then it is only a matter of time before the others follow. Do not let anyone tell you nonsense about “alts’ holding strong” or “the flippening”. Instead take a look at where LTC’ fell too in the last BTC’ bear market.
Stay away from buying / longing those coins over the next couple days / weeks, regardless of how tempting it may seem. You will see bull flags, resistance breakthroughs, thin order books and everyone trick in the book. Do not fall for any of it!
Understand that when fear / capitulation / depression sets in with the market leaders then there will be a serious flight to safety from the alts. That will happen in the blink of an eye and it will completely wreck many of the traders who go rich over the last couple years doing nothing more than longing alts’.
On the flip side if you understand the market and know how to trade then this dynamic could present some opportunities that appear too good to be true.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis: Took partial profit on BTC & ETH shorts and getting prepared for three potential outcomes from here
Position: Short BTC:USD from $6,353 & Short ETH:USD from $196.32
Patterns: Broke down phase 2 of they hyperwave
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,615 | S: $5,200 & $5,400
BTCUSDSHORTS: Shooting star from today is interesting. However there is still plenty of room to go before resistance
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0866%
Short term trend (3 day MA): bear
Medium term trend (8 day MA): bear
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): bear
Overall trend: Bearish and longest term MA’s are starting to roll over (128 is my favorite)
Volume: Most volume we have seen in two consecutive days since March
FIB’s: High of Feb 20th and low of Feb 6th)
1 = $5,863 | 1.272 = $4,262 | 1.4140 = $3,426 | 1.618 = $2,224
Candlestick analysis: Daily closed a dragonfly on high volume (usually a strong indication of a bounce) However the current candle quickly fell below the body, would not expect that to precede bounce.
Ichimoku Cloud: 1h shows resistance from $5,500 - $5,800 | Daily cloud is moving down quickly
TD’ Sequential: 4h hit a r9 and now it is on a g2 | Current candle is a red 9. Would love to see a perfected 9 + bull div in the RSI.
Visible Range: If price can’t support $5,200 then I expect us to fall right through $5,000 due to the gap in volume
Price action: 24h: -0.62% | 2w: -12.69% | 1m: -14.01%
Bollinger Bands: Watch for weekly to close below bottom band as confirmation of bearish momentum
Trendline: Connect top of May 5th to top of July 24th. I expect this to be the top of the down trend.
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Watch for weekly to close below down fractals. Weekly Up fractal at $6,800 should not get retestest (although I wouldn’t say the same about $6,300 due to the 2014 bear trap pointed out in yesterdays post.
RSI: Watching closely for bull div’ on daily
Stochastic: Daily and 4h buy signal should not be overlooked. However the 3d sell signal and weekly posture are more important to me.
Summary: Not much to add from yesterday’s post which summed up my thoughts for the next 1m - 1y. One thing that I did want to talk about is the craziness going on with the alts right now. Seeing Bcash, XRP’, EOS’, LTC’, ADA’ and TRX’ in the green while BTC’ and ETH’ are in the red is a huge trap!
If the two market leads are selling off then it is only a matter of time before the others follow. Do not let anyone tell you nonsense about “alts’ holding strong” or “the flippening”. Instead take a look at where LTC’ fell too in the last BTC’ bear market.
Stay away from buying / longing those coins over the next couple days / weeks, regardless of how tempting it may seem. You will see bull flags, resistance breakthroughs, thin order books and everyone trick in the book. Do not fall for any of it!
Understand that when fear / capitulation / depression sets in with the market leaders then there will be a serious flight to safety from the alts. That will happen in the blink of an eye and it will completely wreck many of the traders who go rich over the last couple years doing nothing more than longing alts’.
On the flip side if you understand the market and know how to trade then this dynamic could present some opportunities that appear too good to be true.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/