Good morning, traders, and Merry Christmas Eve. Bitcoin has been offering itself as a great present this past week and it looks like we've got some more upward momentum coming our way. I've got multiple things noted on these two charts, so take some time to understand it all.
The 4H chart gives us the bigger picture. I have the large green accumulation TR noted as well as the wave count and possible IHS. The expectation is for price to complete wave 5 of this first larger wave up, followed by a retracement for the larger wave 2 which should end around the EQ of the green TR, printing the right shoulder. This would be an LPS within the TR and this accumulation would not have a Spring. We should see candle spread increasing and volume expanding as price heads into that larger wave 3, and breaks the IHS neckline, which would take it to the EQ of the light blue supply zone noted. That larger wave 4 should retest the IHS neckline as support and then thrust into a final larger wave 5 which ends at the top of the larger red price range tool target based on the height of the IHS. This gets price around $5800-$6000. It also brings the 2018 TR into play. As I have been stating all year, 2018 appears to have been accumulation with this recent move down being the Spring. If you are waiting for sub-$3000 prices, then you may not get it.
That being said, I do have another EW count which would have this move up toward the $4400 area as the B wave with the C wave still to come. That C wave would see price dropping below the ST at the beginning of the blue wave 1 to make a new low. This would be a Spring in the green accumulation TR, if it were to play out like this, and then we would start counting five waves up as that should mark the lowest price we will see. Trader should watch price around the possible IHS right shoulder for clues as to which way price is likely to go at that time.
The 1H chart on the right shows, what I believe to be, a running flat wave 4 correction completing. We should see the 5 waves down as drawn before beginning the wave 5 of the larger degree back up. The two recent highs would then be printing a double top (not confirmed until price closes below the horizontal green line) which has a price target of the small red price range tool target. The second top negated any potential bullish divergence in RSI or MACD in the near term, suggesting further movement down as well. The blue TR shows this small TF consolidation and would be re-accumulation without a spring (akin to what I described above) with the target being an LPS.
There are never any guarantees, so traders should remain vigilant and keep their risk management strong.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
The 4H chart gives us the bigger picture. I have the large green accumulation TR noted as well as the wave count and possible IHS. The expectation is for price to complete wave 5 of this first larger wave up, followed by a retracement for the larger wave 2 which should end around the EQ of the green TR, printing the right shoulder. This would be an LPS within the TR and this accumulation would not have a Spring. We should see candle spread increasing and volume expanding as price heads into that larger wave 3, and breaks the IHS neckline, which would take it to the EQ of the light blue supply zone noted. That larger wave 4 should retest the IHS neckline as support and then thrust into a final larger wave 5 which ends at the top of the larger red price range tool target based on the height of the IHS. This gets price around $5800-$6000. It also brings the 2018 TR into play. As I have been stating all year, 2018 appears to have been accumulation with this recent move down being the Spring. If you are waiting for sub-$3000 prices, then you may not get it.
That being said, I do have another EW count which would have this move up toward the $4400 area as the B wave with the C wave still to come. That C wave would see price dropping below the ST at the beginning of the blue wave 1 to make a new low. This would be a Spring in the green accumulation TR, if it were to play out like this, and then we would start counting five waves up as that should mark the lowest price we will see. Trader should watch price around the possible IHS right shoulder for clues as to which way price is likely to go at that time.
The 1H chart on the right shows, what I believe to be, a running flat wave 4 correction completing. We should see the 5 waves down as drawn before beginning the wave 5 of the larger degree back up. The two recent highs would then be printing a double top (not confirmed until price closes below the horizontal green line) which has a price target of the small red price range tool target. The second top negated any potential bullish divergence in RSI or MACD in the near term, suggesting further movement down as well. The blue TR shows this small TF consolidation and would be re-accumulation without a spring (akin to what I described above) with the target being an LPS.
There are never any guarantees, so traders should remain vigilant and keep their risk management strong.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
Comment:
Updated count due to the new high on the latest move up. Just slightly different but ends up in the same place.
