Friends, I hope your all having are having a relaxing weekend. I wanted to update the rationale behind my Lower Top Target on BTC. While I do reserve the right to be wrong, I also see a LOT of confluence for a mid 70K's target being the most likely of outcomes. If we look at all the prior Bull cycles, it is evident we maintain a 5 wave Elliot Wave Count to the peak of the Bull, and this cycle has been no different. To further lay credit to my counts, I have overlaid multiple Fibonacci Levels to confirm that the 4th Waves also coincided with a retest of the 1.618 Fib level. The other key for me is also STRUCTURE. We have been building a LARGE MULTI-YEAR Bearish Ascending Wedge from the peak of 2017 to the current day. When you add that to the fact that the apex of this wedge is in the same region as the Full 4.326 Fib extension it leads to further confluence. The other notable item is our MACD would need to surpass its recent high. I DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL. Rather I see us forming a Lower high and producing a massive weekly negative divergence. Lastly, I am also a fan of measuring sentiment to find out how the "CROWD FEELS" and ever since our new ATH, the crowd has remained in a state of GREED. I believe upon crossing 70K that will shift to EUPHORIA, and will culminate in the last big move up for BTC. Its during this FINAL surge higher that I believe we have our ALT Season. We are already witnessing that now will multiple ALTS making new ATH's, including ETH and multiple Meme coins. This is the Beginning stage of the Final Move for Crypto. I will change my thesis, if and only if, we see a surge past 74K, and a NEW high on all oscillators confirming the move. While many will argue that I am being too conservative, that is fine. I am here to simply chart out the stages of where we were, where we are, and where I believe we are going based on the charts. I believe those that are wanting to make money at this stage need to focus their attention on ALTS that HAVE NOT already pumped, as those will mark the FINAL Blow off TOP for ALL of the Crypto markets. That is all for now! Be Blessed, and Have a Wonderful rest of your weekend! :O)
NOPE. You aren't using 2010/early 2011 data, and the overall macro just reached WAVE 3 at 59990.
UnknownUnicorn4017198
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@CryptoArmor23, linear is a different story though.
Kent_Driskill
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Great analysis @JTheretohelp1 . Have closely followed your charts starting this summer. I am prepared for the blow-off top, but just thinking about the coming bear market. There will be a lot of money to be had in the bear as well when shorting selectively. One thing in the back of my mind that bothers me is the fact that Crypto has not experienced a bear in all asset classes which is what is on the horizon. Appreciate any thoughts you might have on that. We Win !! ~Bean
CivilisedWolf
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you are missing data here, use BTCUSD INDEX and your wave count will be different.
tileguy60169
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Thanks for this friend.
shahzad010
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Brilliant read thankyou as always.
CryptoTimi
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Interesting analysis especially the EW and ascending wedge confluence. Nice work spotting those; I still *hope* we go much higher but this will help me slightly re-work my risk profile in the short term.