Bitcoin BTCUSD Bitstamp - Monthly Downtrend Time expired

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
5612 42 60
Time has expired for Bitcoin to decline and the price "failed" to drop to the suggested targets. It looks as if Bitcoin has upside to rally back to the previous mode in the next 9 months.

Look at the previous forecasts on Bitcoin to see how these trade setups have done and how they worked. Lately the methodology has been a little choppy after working so perfectly for so long.

436 upside potential (~ +80%)
196 stop loss (~ -20%)
4:1 reward/risk ratio

Trade closed: target reached: Anything over $436 was a bonus - $502 was the high.
Comment: Thanks for re-viewing this long term idea from a year ago. The monthly time frame is a solid time frame from which to view the trend of Bitcoin, even though Bitstamp is not the dominant market for Bitcoin.

It's great to see low risk, high return trades pan out using the logical construct of "Time At Mode".

Tim November 1, 2016
BTCUSD Monthly Upside Target 1032 before February

Here's my update as of Nov 17, 2016 8:15AM EST
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Comment removed
Pansyfaust PRO Mr.Thirsty
Imagine people provided some reason or evidence countering the trade idea of another person? Imagine a world like that.

+3 Reply
Yu-Kiang Pansyfaust
Just another bitcointard. Don't pay attention.

Thanks for the idea, Tim, looks solid.
+4 Reply
pretty chart :)
I could add that the big red bars you see during the last 9 months both failed to have 'follow through' bars. You can see last month merely tested the lowest half of the January decline and now the market is above the mid-point of last month's range. If Bitcoin were trying to go down, it wouldn't be acting this strong. I can conclude that because it has failed to drop, that it is strong. It might not rally, but for now that is the right way to look at it, from a trader's perspective.
+7 Reply
It is clear that some big institution or group is holding this up Tim i mean 4H RSI is overbought been 3 days now which is ridiculous. without those big players drawing wtv picture they want, wed be at $68 by now since other than their $$, no new money from new adopters is coming in Bitcoin. I am very skeptical about $300-400. Look what happened last time or past 3x when they tried pumping to 315, anything above that is unsustainable unless they are heavily loaded on cash to make it happen + Willy 3.0 bot?
babad00k timwest
Hi Tim, thanks for posting this. My question is whether on a shorter timeframe we can expect some pullback that we can wait for to get a better long entry?
+1 Reply
timwest PRO babad00k
I'll work on a shorter term analysis and see what I can come up with.
+2 Reply
The large inside bar for January 2015 still needs to be taken out until that happens I think Bitcoin is still quite vulnerable. On the fundamental side we still need to realize that Bitcoin is nothing masquerading as gold.
Had this forecast, weekly and daily were conflicting, now that I see the monthly, it's clear that the daily uptrend has good odds.

BTCUSD: Update and forecast/guidelines
+2 Reply
MFB IvanLabrie
I nearly posted a very similar time at mode analysis a couple days ago. Nice chart.
Hello @MFB, I don't see any charts that you have posted.... Do you have another username?
MFB timwest
Hi @timwest, I have never posted a chart on TV. I'll put one up on bitcoin when I feel that it is an original view that could be helpful to the community. I have been trading bitcoin based on the time at mode analysis method for the past six months.
timwest PRO IvanLabrie
I love how "low volume support" held in the decline you have shown here. Nice going Ivan.
+1 Reply
Hi Tim. If we hit the previous mode quickly, as in within a month or two, does that mean the upside target will have to be adjusted?
timwest PRO rivet.popper
That's a good question - I don't think I would change my target if the rally happens faster. I might have additional trades where I look to buy the pullbacks after a strong up-move though.
+1 Reply
timwest PRO rivet.popper
I'm reviewing what to do now that the long term target has been reached.
blackswan timwest
Tim any update would be appreciated.
timwest PRO blackswan
It's time for longs 11/16/2015 -
5:09PM EST
Are you including the Bitcoin network attack due Thursday at 10am GMT in your forecast?
Otherwise, I would agree... but drama usually spells a downward push on Bitcoin.
I look for May to be the time to go long, 90 days before the block reward halving.
+2 Reply
babad00k Phoenix1969
This is a forecast in the monthly charts, looking nine months ahead, events like the one you mention are not relevant for these timeframes. On the short term the price might be affected by the stress test, but if that happens it does not change the monthly forecast. Rather, if there is a dip tomorrow, it might be a good opportunity to buy longer term coin at a good price.
+1 Reply
timwest PRO Phoenix1969
Thanks for the heads-up on the news. I'll look at weekly charts to find levels of support and reaction levels to enter.
If u guys are talking about coinwallet.eu, their stress test was cancelled and the funds that were going to be used is being given away.
+2 Reply
Daily BTCUSD - as of Sep 10, 2015
I wanted to short initially but changed my mind and just converted to Euros (and left some in Ethereum since I think it'll rally with BTC but outperform it in % moves)
manipuflated IvanLabrie
How does inflation work with ETH and what is the supply? Isn't it 40% each year?
IvanLabrie PRO manipuflated

Read more here, covers the launch 'phases': https://blog.ethereum.org/2015/03/03/ethereum-launch-process/
khoilevt timwest
nice chart
MFB timwest
Hi Tim, how often do you find that a rally such as this will only extend to the conservative T.A.M. target vs. the aggressive target? I could be missing something, but I haven't seen you break out the T.A.M. targets like this before...
Hi Tim. We hit upside target quite early, way before 9 months, and the rally seems to be continuing. So what now?
timwest PRO rivet.popper
Hello - The next higher mode on the monthly is possible. We can look at the weekly time frame and look at the daily time frame from the top also. What I like to do is to find times when the trend turns down on the daily and expect a failure to happen and we can get in on long positions right as the downtrend expires and fails and then reverses sharply back up. Look even for weekly downtrends to set-up low risk buy signals, if we even get a weekly sell signal. When the monthly trend is UP, buy at the end of weekly sell signals and at the end of daily sell signals. The larger time frame is the more important one. If I don't reply to a question, PM-me or email me or just keep posting questions here. I get too many alerts and miss many.
+4 Reply
Indeed were going to start seeing some big volatility/swings of $50-100 soon. It is impossible to see that on the monthly.
Actually I think 365 will fail as we need to retest 31330 before more up, the market is a magnet to it.
BitcoinGuru BitcoinGuru
correction 31330 = $315-330
After a nice pullback from the high at 500, Bitcoin is setting up for another buy here. Using the 4 hour time frame, it has an entry signal here today at the close 11/16/2015 (Iong)
+7 Reply
noto1235 timwest
just bought :) thanks where do u see the top from here ? keep us updated please
Long has turned into a triangle. This is awfully common.
I think next move is down. (Posted daily)
+1 Reply
BitcoinGuru IvanLabrie
I still think sideways and up by friday
IvanLabrie PRO BitcoinGuru
It's unclear.We'll see.
Trade what you see by then.
Tim, what's your current take on bitcoin? If I read your chart correctly we are in the middle of potential 9 month rally.
timwest PRO ryopphdi
@ryopphdi, Sorry I missed your question from 10 months ago. If you follow @IvanLabrie, he does a fine job of using Time@Mode to project bitcoin. I'll be assembling a chart myself here today (most likely). Cheers. 11/17/2016 7:26AM EST
@timwest, No worries. Better late than never ;)
Hi Tim, the Bitcoin trader world is more than ready for a new chart from you! What does the end of the year have in store for BTC? What do you think about 2017?

timwest PRO NicolasMendoza
@NicolasMendoza, Thanks for the invite to re-view! If you get a chance to follow @IvanLabrie, he does a great job of using Time@Mode to project BTC in all of its forms. I will be spending some time updating this chart, especially in light of the latest advance post-election and during the gold market pullback/correction. 11/17/2016 7:25AM EST
+1 Reply
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