Just a small tweak based on the ETF-related pump over the past month overshooting the original target of 8k slightly. Other than the slight overshoot, the pattern analysis has generally held true from July 9 (6700 level - predicting the dump to 6100 and the pump to 8k+ and the collapse back below the trend line).
The plan from here is a retest of 8k as resistance (as 8k has not yet functioned as resistance - 7800 was the only meaningful resistance on the way up) followed by a long road down to the key September 1, 2017 resistance level of 5k.
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Comment
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the apparent busting through the top of the triangle is eliminated by using a log chart. This has been done in the update.
the apparent busting through the top of the triangle, I discovered, is eliminated by using a log chart. The update (Part III) does so.
mysql
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I also came up with a 4k target... problem is, if many people expect it to play out this way, it won't go as planned.
David_Warren_Ellison
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@mysql, I think you're right. However, frequently in BTC, a daily wick will overshoot a target significantly (Target of 6900 in early February 6, 2018 overshot to 6000). So realistically, a 4k target low could go much much lower. Possible targets would be the September 2017 low of $3000 or the July 2017 low of $1800.
Furthermore, a pattern could indeed reverse at any time based on a change in the fundamentals, so departure from a long-standing pattern (especially a clear bullish departure from these wave patterns - especially following one of the future lows at 4k or 5k) would itself be a useful trading signal.
Dageraad
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Hi @DavidNeiderauer
when you trace a more precise TL (with and without spikes, it doesn't matter), you see BTC is now above that and it's testing it as support. What do you think about that?
invst.ly/86ghr
Not sure. Because it already got within $50 of 8k. That might be within the margin of error.
I longed 7500, closed in the high 7600s. The limit bought at 7390 yesterday and closed in the low-mid 7500s today.
From here i would expect some type of correction, but obviously the fib levels are different now than they were when this was made with 7500 as the local bottom. So .382 doesn't take us to 8k like it did then. More like mid 7600s.
angel0wnz
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Solid chart!
getdfs
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Nice chart. Seeing this a lot. I hope it can be this simple. Likely to see some big curve balls along the way, mostly in time frame. Too news oriented and volatile in sentiment to bank on this, but great platform to work from. Good work.