BTC may be cut in half AGAIN from here !
I went back and studied the 2014 crash pattern which is eerily similar to the 2018 crash pattern. By looking at the post-crash price ranges of 2014 and doing some simple math I was able to make some similar forecasts for the 2018 pattern.
At the absolute extreme bottom the 2014 price dropped to 15% of it's all time high. $1175 x .15 = $176. Some BTC was sold as low as $162 but very little and only in brief spikes down. So if this held true today then $19891 x .15 = $2,984 or $3,000 to round things off. This would be the absolute bottom of despair prices we could expect to see if things matched up perfectly. Since when is anything perfect?
A more realistic long buying opportunity would most likely come at the .25 point or $5,000 range down to the .20 point or $4,000 range. For the really patient they may be able to hold out and start buying in the $3,500 range should we ever get there.
For me, if this plays out, I will most likely start buying small fractions of BTC under $5K and continue to do so as long as I can improve my price. If this plays out like 2014 we could be sitting on this bottom for a very long time so there will be plenty of opportunities to get in for those WHO ARE STILL INTERESTED and have not completely thrown in the towel. Of course this is only my "general long term plan". What I do then greatly depends on what is going on at that particular time. Maybe we have a flash crash down to the $3K and I throw in my entire wad at one time? Or maybe things slow roll along and I just accumulate a little here, and little there, while waiting for the recovery. It's impossible to say how things will ever play out but I think it's good to have a general idea of what you want to do when you see things unfolding as you anticipate.
At the absolute extreme bottom the 2014 price dropped to 15% of it's all time high. $1175 x .15 = $176. Some BTC was sold as low as $162 but very little and only in brief spikes down. So if this held true today then $19891 x .15 = $2,984 or $3,000 to round things off. This would be the absolute bottom of despair prices we could expect to see if things matched up perfectly. Since when is anything perfect?
A more realistic long buying opportunity would most likely come at the .25 point or $5,000 range down to the .20 point or $4,000 range. For the really patient they may be able to hold out and start buying in the $3,500 range should we ever get there.
For me, if this plays out, I will most likely start buying small fractions of BTC under $5K and continue to do so as long as I can improve my price. If this plays out like 2014 we could be sitting on this bottom for a very long time so there will be plenty of opportunities to get in for those WHO ARE STILL INTERESTED and have not completely thrown in the towel. Of course this is only my "general long term plan". What I do then greatly depends on what is going on at that particular time. Maybe we have a flash crash down to the $3K and I throw in my entire wad at one time? Or maybe things slow roll along and I just accumulate a little here, and little there, while waiting for the recovery. It's impossible to say how things will ever play out but I think it's good to have a general idea of what you want to do when you see things unfolding as you anticipate.
Comment:
Just out of curiosity I went ahead and place good until cancel orders starting at $5,500 all the way down to $3,000 hitting every $500 stop in between. I may even go back and add a $6K and $2500 order just to may the range a little larger. If, somebody does flush the toilet, even for only a few minutes or hours I want to make sure I have orders in place that will trigger in the event of a "Flash Crash" or a running of the stops if you will. In this case, I would not mind at all if the whales decided to take out all my stops. Long term I would view it as a favor. :D
Comment:
Not to confuse anyone, my above comment is referring to Limit Orders I have in place not "stops" or "stop loss" orders as I currently have no open position. Just to clarify. :D